Talks Stall, hints of what each side wants

The AFP reports today that the stalled talks have a long way to go to reach a compromise. With Mbeki in Harare to encourage Mugabe to make public statements about his "total committment" to talks, and Morgan Tsvangirai in Senegal to talk to Senegalese President Wade, it isn't difficult to see the main stumbling block. Tsvangirai wants a more serious position for himself in a transitional government, while ZANU-PF wants to create a government of national unity with Tsvangirai as "third vice president".

The article quotes political scientist John Makumbe's views:

" John Makumbe, a political science lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe,
argued that the media coverage was probably accurate.

'Things are not going well. President Mbeki can pretend that everything
is under control. But the body language, even of Mugabe makes it very clear that
there is a deadlock,'he said Thursday in an interview on South Africa's public
broadcaster SA FM.
'I had expected all along that there will be serious
problem on agreeing on a vehicle for transition to democracy; either to adopt a
government of national unity, as canvassed by the ZANU-PF or create a
transitional government, as suggested by the MDC.'"

Insights into the Secret talks and why individuals defeated in the 2008 election find themselves at the table

Journalist and Zimbabwe Times editor Geoffrey Nyarota writes on July 26th for the Zimbabwe Times a very useful observation about the cuurent talks between the ZANU-PF, Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC, and Arthur Mutambara's MDC. Nyarota points out that not all the people negotiating, including ZANU-PF's Patrick Chinamasa, have the mandate of the people to partake. Chinamasa lost his parliamentary seat in the March 29th election but as a key Mugabe insider, still serves as the Minister of Justice.

Nyarota writes:

"From a different prospective the politicians participating in the current talks received the mandate of the people in recent elections. That, of course, is with the notable exception of the delegates representing the breakaway faction of the MDC led by Professor Arthur Mutambara. Professor Welshman Ncube and Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga, as well as Justice Minister, Patrick Chinamasa, representing Zanu-PF, who were totally rejected by voters in their constituencies on March 29.

By some coincidence, only 50 percent of the delegates enjoy the mandate of the people to represent them. These are Tendai Biti and Lovemore Mangoma of the mainstream MDC led by Tsvangirai, as well as Nicholas Goche of Zanu-PF. The other 50 percent are not mandated representatives of the people.

Neither are Madhuku and Chibhebhe.

As if not to be outdone, Ncube and Misihairabwi’s leader, Mutambara, quickly crafted and volunteered what became the first, if unofficial, and so far only concept paper for the Pretoria talks. Clearly overwhelmed by the euphoria generated by the surprise appendage of his own signature to the MoU, Mutambara proposed that Mugabe and Tsvangirai should travel hand in hand to every corner of Zimbabwe and address joint rallies to demonstrate their commitment to a peaceful and prosperous future Zimbabwe.

One difference between Lancaster and Pretoria is dramatic. Muzorewa, Chief Chirau and Sithole returned from the Lancaster House Conference to endure humiliating defeat in the 1980 elections. Twenty-eight years later, Chinamasa, Ncube and Misihairambwi endured equally humiliating defeat in the 2008 parliamentary elections and then skillfully maneuvered their way to sitting around the negotiating table in Pretoria."

Read Nyarota's entire editorial here.

Violence Against MDC continues as Talks Underway

Peta Thornycroft reports today from Harare for the Voice of America that although the MOU for the talks specifically indicated there would be a cessation to the violence during the talks, this has not been the case.

Thornycroft writes:

"Meanwhile, the political violence that has plagued Zimbabwe continues. The violence began after President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF was beaten by Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC in March 29 elections.

Violence escalated until Mr. Tsvangirai withdrew from a June 27 presidential run-off in which Mr. Mugabe later claimed victory. International observers say the run-off was neither free nor fair.

Human rights monitors say the violence has diminished somewhat, but since the parties agreed to talks a week ago three people, all known MDC supporters, have been killed.

In other incidents, a Zimbabwean freelance journalist was savagely beaten in his Harare home. He was later allegedly accused by police of bringing Zimbabwe's name into disrepute.

And, political scientist John Makumbe was questioned by police last week. He was accused of fabricating cases of political violence, according to the state press.

In at least three Zimbabwe districts there is still political tension and many people who fled their homes say they are still too frightened to return home.

In Buhera, in the Manicaland Province, human rights monitors say there are 25 paramilitary bases controlled by ZANU-PF youth that are still operational. In other districts, bases continue to be dismantled, but in many cases ZANU-PF personnel who worked there are still in the districts. Many people say they are fearful of them.

There are curfews in place in the northern parts of Mashonaland East province, in parts of Manicaland and Mashonaland Central, according to human rights monitors who have traveled around those districts in the past 10 days. "

The MOU stated under section 10.1. "Security of persons"

(a) Each Party will issue a statement condemning the promotion and use of violence and call for peace in the country and shall take all measures necessary to ensure that the structures and institutions it controls are not engaged in the perpetration of violence.

(b) The Parties are committed to ensuring that the law is applied fairly and justly to all persons irrespective of political affiliation.

(c) The Parties will take all necessary measures to eliminate all forms of political violence, including by non-state actors, and ensure the security of persons and property.

(d) The Parties agree that, in the interim, they will work to ensure the safety of any displaced persons and their safe return home and that humanitarian and social welfare organizations are enabled to render such assistance as might be required.

10.2. Hate speech

The Parties shall refrain from using abusive language that may incite hostility political intolerance and ethnic hatred or undermine each other."


The full text of the MOU is available at Relief Web.

Third Vice President for Tsvangirai?

The AFP reports today that the talks between ZANU-PF and the MDC have run into trouble one week after beginning. The reporter, talking with unnamed MDC sources, suggests that Morgan Tsvangirai has flown to Pretoria in order to talk with his negotiating team. One source suggested that the talks are at a stalemate because ZANU-PF has failed to offer Tsvangirai anything more than the position of "third Vice President". The level of rumor and speculation runs high, as any talks in Zimbabwe, especially 'secret' talks are prone to increase the already high level of misinformation.

Guardian [UK] Reports imminent shortage of bank notes in Zimbabwe

Chris McGreal continues excellent coverage from Harare, reporting today of fears over the shortage of paper to print Zimbabwe's hyperinflated currency.

The problem for ZANU-PF is that since the German banknote company stopped supply paper during the violent presidental run-off campaign, they have not been able to find alternative sources locally.

McGreal reports:

"Zimbabwe was looking to Malaysia as an alternative source of paper but the government feared that the licence for the specialist software supplied by another European firm would be withdrawn as part of the boycott of Robert Mugabe's regime.

The software is supplied by Jura JSP, a Hungarian-Austrian company that specialises in security printing. A knowledgeable source inside Fidelity Printers said the software issue had created an air of panic.

"It's a major problem. They are very concerned that the licence will be withdrawn or not renewed. They are trying to find ways around it, looking at the software, but it's very technical. They are in a panic because without the software they can't print anything," he said.

On Monday, the central bank issued a $100bn note, the highest denomination to date but worth only about 7p, printed on what remains of stocks of the German-supplied paper.
The source said the firm had been told that new supplies of currency paper were coming from Malaysia but it was unable to meet the current demand for cash created by hyperinflation that economists estimated was running at about 40m%."

McGreal reports the real issue will be how will the ZANU-PF controlled government continue to pay soldiers?

The LA Times ran a very good insider story (without a byline) last week on the impending shortage of banknote paper, and the crazy world of Fidelity Presses, where 1,000 workers worked 24/7 seven days a week to keep printing more money.

The author of the LA Times story illustrates the meaning of hyper-inflation for those who can afford to drink beer in one of Harare's downtown establishments:

"Before the crunch, a beer at a bar in Harare, the capital, cost 15 billion Zimbabwean dollars. At 5 p.m. July 4, it cost 100 billion ($4 at the time) in the same bar.An hour later, the price had gone up to 150 billion ($6)."

VOA Interviews MDC leaders and others about the Talks between ZANU-PF and MDC

Blessing Zulu reports for Voice of America of the SADC and AU sanctioned talks that were scheduled to begin today in South Africa.

Zulu reports that Mugabe and MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai reportedly had a 90-minute talk after the formal signing of the MOU in Harare on Monday.

Zulu provides the following context for the talks:

"Power-sharing talks between Zimbabwe's ruling party and opposition were expected to begin in earnest on Wednesday following the signing early this week of a memorandum of understanding setting out the daunting task ahead of the crisis negotiators.

Some observers expressed skepticism that the ruling ZANU-PF and opposition Movement for Democratic Change negotiating teams could address all of the issues on the table within the two weeks that have been allocated for coming up with a power-sharing agreement.

The agreement would provide for a government of national unity or a transitional authority to run the country or revise the constitution and prepare the ground for new elections."

Zulu also reports that Tsvangirai has said he will not agree to anything without the support of Zimbabwean civil society and trade union. This is an interesting development, as Welshman Ncube, who supports Arthur Mutambara's wing of the MDC, had said earlier in the week that civil society would like to see someone other than Tsvangirai or Mugabe as the leader of any government of national unity.

There are interviews with Welshman Ncube, Nelson Chamisa of the Tsvangirai MDC, ZANU-PF's Chris Mutsvangwa, and lawyer Theresa Mugadza

BBC Coverage of Response in Harare to MOU between ZANU-PF and MDC

Brian Hungwe, writing for the BBC Africa, presents views on the street as news of yesterday's Memorandum of Understanding was signed by Mugabe, Tsvangirai, and Mutambara.

Here is Hungwe's description of the signing ceremony:

"There was a handshake and a smile, but no embrace. It appears the rivals did not want to physically commit themselves that far.

The body language failed to provide a clue as to whether the ice had really been broken in the hotel where they held a brief meeting.

Mr Mutambara seemed at ease, Mr Tsvangirai disinterested, and Mr Mugabe was, as usual, self-confident.

The handshake was a temporary triumph for South African President Thabo Mbeki and his much-criticised "quiet diplomacy" policy on Zimbabwe.

At last, the rivals had come face to face.

They signed a commitment to "end polarisation, divisions, conflict and intolerance that have characterised our country's politics."

The talks are due to be completed in two weeks."

Hungwe described the difference responses of people in Harare:

"In the townships, there is some confusion.

"We wait and see, it's difficult to trust Mr Mugabe," says Caleb, 34, from Chitungwiza, a dormitory town just south of Harare.

But Mudiwa, of Highfields said: "We trust all our leaders, we hope whatever they will debate, is good for us all."

"This is not the time to outdo one another, but to think about the suffering of the ordinary people."

Around the streets of Harare, the news came as a shock to many.

It drew laughter from those who thought it was a hoax, but excitement from others.

A security officer at a local hotel said people were looking forward to making sure "people are having enough food and they are having enough medication from the hospitals".

Taxi driver Johannes Phiri said: "I am quite happy, what's has been happening was very bad."

"With the agreement, everything will be all right so that we can survive and lead our normal lives again.""

Perhaps the most telling response was from a rural Zimbabwean who lost three brothers in the political violence during the campaigning for the last election:

"Leslie Madamombe of Mashonaland Central province lost three brothers a week before the country's 27 June presidential run-off.

One was shot point-blank and the others forced to drink a lethal Chinese paraquat herbicide by militias from the ruling Zanu-PF party.

"[The agreement] should have happened long back," he says. "Nothing will ever bring my three dead brothers back."

Leslie's mother and elder brother Hilton still fear for their lives, guarded by armed police at a Harare hospital.

"I'm bitter, but I however look forward with hope," he says."