Zimbabwe Independent Reports on Reasons for Breakdown in Talks

As Monday morning in Harare arrives to word of the sitting of parliament, something that was not supposed to happen under the MOU signed by Mugabe, Tsvangarai and Mutambara, the Zimbabwe Independent reports of leaked document from the talks that clearly shows why Tsvangarai could not accept the position offered him by Mugabe and Mbeki. Walter Marwizi & Vusumuzi Sifile, writing for the Zimbabwe Independent from Harare, report:

"Leaked documents and information gathered from various sources show that the unsuccessful deal, far from ensuring a changing political landscape favouring Tsvangirai who polled the most votes in March 29 elections, would have entrenched Mugabe’s grip on power.

The documents show this 50-50 power arrangement was clearly in favour of Mugabe who would remain Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and head of government as well as head of state.

Tsvangirai refused to sign the agreement nearly two weeks ago in order
to "reflect and consult".

Sources have revealed that top among Tsvangirai’s worries was paragraph
2 of the document titled Role of the Prime Minister.

While the paragraph stipulated that the prime minister would carry the responsibility to oversee the formulation of policies by the Cabinet, it also spelt out that Tsvangirai would not be the man in charge — he would only be "a Member of the Cabinet and its Deputy Chairperson".

This arrangement left Mugabe, in accordance with the Zimbabwe constitution, as the head of Cabinet.

To make matters worse for Tsvangirai, who had insisted that he heads the cabinet, according paragraph 11 he would "report regularly to the president."

Such reports confirm what many thought Mugabe would try, and apparently with the support of Mbeki, to bully Tsvangarai into accepting a position that appeared to be power-sharing, but in reality would have allowed Mugabe to report to the world he is sharing power with the opposition. The same opposition whose leaders and supporters have been on the receiving end of brutal political violence over the past 4 months, and before this.

Allan Little, writing for the BBC a few weeks ago, explained how similar these negotiations appear compared with Mugabe's negotiations in 1988 to bring Joshua Nkomo into a unity government. Like Tsvangarai, Nkomo was the leader of the opposition, ,ZAPU, who had suffered untold horrors and terrible abuses at the hands of Mugabe's 5th Brigade in beginning in 1983--including the killings of thousands of Ndebele civilians and ZAPU organizers--and again in 1985and then the party youth during the 1985 elections.

Little's article, "Nkomo's ghost haunts Zimbabwe talks", comments on the extreme pressures on Tsvangarai not to accept a compromised power sharing as Nkomo had done in 1988. Little writes:

" Ruthless campaign

Mr Mugabe fought him [Nkomo] for five years.
He destroyed him in two ways. First he sent into Matabeleland the ruthless, North Korea-trained Fifth brigade. Thousands of Mr Nkomo's supporters were murdered and their bodies dumped in mass graves in a two-year operation known as Gukurahundi.

Mr Mugabe used what, on the face of it, was sold to the world as a power-sharing agreement to consolidate his own one party state.

Then - and this was a master stroke - Mr Mugabe reached an agreement with Mr Nkomo: a power-sharing agreement.
Mr Nkomo was brought into the
government as vice-president.

Officially, the two political parties merged to form Zanu-PF, but in reality Mr Mugabe's party swallowed Mr Nkomo's Zapu party whole.

Mr Nkomo was neutralised, destroyed.

Mr Mugabe used what, on the face of it, was sold to the world as a power-sharing agreement to consolidate his own one-party state.

It entrenched his dictatorship for 20 years."

So far Morgan Tsvangarai's ability to not cave in to pressures from Mbeki and SADC to accept what appears to have a similarly weak position in Mugabe's government has allowed him and the MDC to avoid Nkomo's fate. But now what?

Monday brings the opening of Parliament and the all-important election of the Speaker of Parliament. With the MDC having 100 seats and ZANU-PF 99, the votes of the lone independent Jason Moyo and the MDC-Mutambara faction with 10 seats, it will be interesting to see how the parties align. It will also be interesting to see if some of the MDC-Tsvangarai faction MPs still in hiding from death threats will even be able to appear in parliament.

SADC Summit Fails to Bring Parties to Agreement, but who feels the pressure?

If South African President Thabo Mbeki had things work his way, he would have been able to conclude this past weekend's SADC summit in South Africa with the announcement of a successful conclusion of the powersharing talks between ZANU-PF, the MDC-T (Tsvangarai), and teh MDC-M (Mutambara). Tsvangarai appears to have survived the intense pressure of the Angolans and Tanzanians (along with South Africa) to sign on to the agreement, and reports suggest that Tsvangarai called Mugabe's bluff with his last suggestion that Mugabe accept the position of Prime Minister with a limited portfolio offered to him. Not surprisingly, Mugabe would not accept such a limit.

Two good post-summit articles are worth considering. The first, by Kenyan reporter Kitsepile Nyathi, based in Harare and writing for Kenya's The Nation newspaper, provides useful insights into the pressures on Mugabe and his ZANU-PF from the Joint Operations Command (JOC), the group of military leaders reported to be responsible for orchestrating the political violence against the MDC during the presidential elections. Nyathi writes:

"His [Mugabe's] image of a man with sole and absolute power was brought into question. South African President Thabo Mbeki spent four days holed in a Harare hotel after Zanu PF and MDC negotiators produced a draft agreement that many believed was a panacea to the impasse that has kept Zimbabwe without a government for five months.

He went back home empty handed after Mr Tsvangirai walked out of the talks protesting that he no longer "understood the language" Mr Mugabe was talking at the negotiating table.

Reports have since emerged that defence forces commander, General Constantine Chiwenga told Mr Mugabe that the army was not prepared to honour any arrangement that leaves Mr Tsvangirai as the dominant figure in government.

Gen Chiwenga is the leader of the Joint Operations Command (JOC), which is made up heads of the army, police, prisons and intelligence that has effectively usurped power from Mr Mugabe since Mr Tsvangirai defeated him in the presidential election held on March 29.

Another Threat

Then another threat came from former liberation war fighters who are said to have ordered the 84 year-old president not to accept any power sharing deal with the opposition, warning that he risked dire consequences including the invasion of commercial farms.

The warnings were separately delivered to Mr Mugabe on Monday, while Zimbabweans expected that the three leaders including Professor Arthur Mutambara of the small faction of the MDC were close to signing the anxiously awaited power-sharing deal.

"The outcome of the talks hinges on the army generals and Mugabe is only there as a figure head," said a researcher at the Department of War and Strategic Studies at the University of Zimbabwe who could not be named for professional reasons.

"The military remains deeply suspicious of Tsvangirai and some commanders feel that they have sacrificed a lot for Mugabe to lose out their positions just like that."

He said Zimbabwe's political transition from the Lancaster House talks that brought the country's independence in 1980 to an accord that ended a civil war in 1987 had always been negotiated by soldiers who must be involved if the current talks were to succeed."

Another helpful article comes from AFP and appears from the sources cited to have been composed in South Africa. The article also points to the JOC as the main force dictating an all or nothing strategy for Mugabe in the talks:

"I think the question to ask from where I'm sitting is whether it is Mugabe's decision," said Aubrey Matshiqi of the Centre for Political Studies in South Africa. An obstacle to a settlement to end the crisis that intensified after Mugabe's widely condemned re-election in June may be the Joint Operations Command, he said. "It would be very difficult for the JOC for instance to give up ministerial posts if this includes giving up the security portfolios." Tsvangirai in June claimed that Zimbabwe was being run by a "military junta", and he boycotted the June run-off vote, citing rising violence against his supporters that had left dozens dead and thousands injured.

The opposition leader has held out so far against accepting a deal that he sees as not granting him real power."

According to analysts cited in the article, there is still a notion that Mugabe and his generals will have to concede some power in order to access Western economic aid:

Despite the differences between the bitter rivals, some analysts say some type of deal will eventually come out of the discussions. Eldred Masungure, a lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe, told AFP that "a deal is inevitable". "There will be an immense pressure on both parties to reach a deal," he said. "Failure is not an option as all other exits are blocked."

But where a deal will leave the opposition is unclear, and some analysts argue Tsvangirai will never accept an agreement that does not give him a workable share of power. "Robert Mugabe might be willing to give some power to Morgan Tsvangirai, but that power will only translate to 25 percent of real power and that would not include him giving Morgan control of the army, police and the intelligence," said Takavira Zhou, a political analyst in Zimbabwe.

In the meantime, Zimbabwe's economic meltdown continues. Once seen as a regional breadbasket, the country now has the world's highest inflation rate, officially put at 2.2 million percent, and major food shortages.

Some argue Mugabe's party may be willing to accept a deal if only to free up international aid. "Zanu-PF seems to have a problem in giving real power to the MDC, but eventually they will have to," said Takura Zhangazha, director of the Media Institute of Southern Africa. World Bank and IMF support will be needed "to get the economy back on track", Zhangazha said."

This seems logical and has been a constant way of interpreting Mugabe's willingness to deal--beyond the need to help Mbeki and SADC placate international demands for some sort of negotiated settlement. It would be naive to count out Mugabe's search for alternatives to dealing with the IMF World Bank. While these attempts have recently faltered, there is still an international competition between mining interests that is likely very involved in the behind the scenes backroom negotiations. This is were the money is made and the power is brokered. In the Rhodesian settlement talks of the 1970s, mining and construction maverick Tiny Rowland was always deeply involved with African nationalists and the international mining community. Today the Tiny Rowlands are from the UK, North America, South Africa, Russia, India, and China's powerful platinum mining interests. As long as the talks can continue--which all sides have reiterated will happen--the mining interests will be hard at work making promises and accepting handshake deals with all parties at the table. Why then, would any party be in a hurry to reach an agreement? Meanwhile, Tsvangarai has the almost impossible task of not betraying the goals of the MDC over the past 8 years. Nyati's report shows just how unpopular are suggestions that Arthur Mutambara has agreed to work with ZANU-PF and form a government with their 10 MPs (ZANU has 99 and MDC-T has 100) based on the March 29th elections. According to Nyati,

"Seven of the faction's 10 MPs [MDC-M] threatened to resign from the party rather than work with Zanu PF."

Where then will the pressure come? Is the international community now so preoccupied with Georgia that it has moved on from its 'horror' over the political violence in Zimbabwe? Has Mbeki been handed over exclusive rights to work this problem out? There is passing reference to pressure on Tsvangarai and Mbeki to reach an agreement. Where is the pressure coming from on South Africa? The US State Department is unlikely to take up the issue with much gusto, after all, most of the key political appointees working on Africa are now working on their CVs and looking for new work starting in January. Once again, time and South Africa's and SADC's inability to stand up on principle and defend Zimbabweans appears to be giving Mugabe and his generals little need to rush. In addition, after the Olympic Flame goes out in Beijing, China will be "more free" to act in Zimbabwe...

To recap events of the past 6 weeks since Mugabe's self-coronation after the uncontested June 27th presidential elections, Mugabe has attended the AU summit in Egypt with only criticisms from Liberia, Zambia, Botswana, and Senegal; had Mbeki defend him at the UN and the EU by insisting that South Africa and SADC could handle the negotiations of a power sharing agreement. This past weekend, after the unrealistic deadline of 2 weeks had already passed, Mugabe, Tsvangarai and Mutambara attended the SADC summit--although Tsvangarai was harassed in Harare at the airport and his departure delayed--and the summit failed to produce an agreement. Significantly, Botswana and Zambia have presented strong criticism in SADC, and the powerful South African trade union COSATU held protests at the summit against Mugabe's illegitimate claim to rule. So, six weeks post-election, where is the pressure on Mugabe and his ruling clique?

Zambian Foreign Minister Stands Up against Mugabe's Regime at SADC Summit

The AFP reports the criticisms of Mugabe and ZANU-PF for their violent crackdown on the opposition leading up to the June 27th presidential run-off election.

The AFP reports:

"Zambia on Saturday slammed Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe's controversial re-election as a "blot on democracy".

"In Zimbabwe, the regrettable events leading to and including the
holding of the run-off elections on 27th June 2008 have no doubt left a serious blot on the culture of democracy in our sub-region," Zambian Foreign Minister
Kabinga Pande said at the opening of a regional summit.

He was addressing the 14-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit on behalf of Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, who remains in
hospital after suffering a stroke in June.

"Not only were these events alien to our region, but they also brought
into question in some quarters the integrity of SADC as an institution capable of promoting the rule of law and democratic governance."
Mwanawasa has previously said it was "scandalous for SADC to remain silent on Zimbabwe".

Mugabe was re-elected in the June run-off poll widely condemned as a
sham. Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai boycotted the run-off despite finishing ahead of Mugabe in the first round of the election in March, citing rising violence against his supporters.

Zambia and Botswana have been among Mugabe's harshest critics in the region. Botswana President Ian Khama stayed away from the summit after his government said it did not recognise Mugabe's re-election."

Talks break again, while talk grows of agreement between Mugabe and Mutambara faction of the MDC

Agnus Shaw reports that the talks have broken off again in Harare, but this time it appears as if Arthur Mutambara, the leader of the smaller MDC faction, has agreed in prinicipal to work with Mugabe's ruling party toward an agreement, which leaves Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC leader who won the most votes in the first elections in March, the sole holdout.

Shaw's report indicates how this new development seems to be putting the pressure on Tsvangirai, while also indicating Mutambara is unwilling to go it alone in agreeing with Mugabe:

"The most contentious issue has been the amount of control 84-year-old Mugabe is prepared to cede. Mugabe reportedly wants to keep his authority as president, while Tsvangirai reportedly wants executive powers as prime minister, including the right to chair Cabinet meetings.

In his statement, Tsvangirai said a solution to Zimbabwe's crisis must reflect the outcome of the March presidential vote, in other words, Tsvangirai's victory over Mugabe.

"We knew negotiations would be difficult, but a resolution that represents anything other than the will of the Zimbabwean people would be a disaster for our country," he said.

Tsvangirai's faction has 100 seats in Parliament, and the ruling ZANU-PF 99. Mutambara, whose faction holds 10, agreed to form a parliamentary alliance with Tsvangirai after the March elections. If the power-sharing talks collapsed and Mutambara switched allegiances, it would give the majority to Mugabe's party.

Mutambara insisted that he had not cut a separate deal with Mugabe to sideline Tsvangirai, saying "there is no way you can extract a bilateral agreement from a tripartite process."

Mutambara appealed to Tsvangirai to think of the national interest.

"We are at a crossroads in our country," Mutambara told a news conference. "The leaders of our political parties must rise up to the challenge to provide leadership.""

Morgan Tsvangirai, who from the beginning of the talks in July has refused to accept a subordinate role to Mugabe, now seem to be putting the burden on South Africa's Mbeki and the SADC leadership to intervene to stop the crisis in Zimbabwe. Again, according to Shaw's report:

""We need a government that transfers power to the elected representatives of the people to carry out the people's mandate for change," said Movement for Democratic Change president Morgan Tsvangirai.

Tsvangirai left South African-mediated talks with Mugabe and the leader of a smaller opposition faction late Tuesday, prompting speculation that he had walked out. But in his statement Wednesday, he said negotiations would continue.

South African President Thabo Mbeki said the adjournment was meant to give Tsvangirai "more time to reflect." He told journalists in Angola — where he made a brief visit after Zimbabwe — that the negotiations were on the right track.

Tsvangirai said that Mugabe must make a sign of good faith and end his ban on international humanitarian aid agencies imposed earlier this year, ostensibly because they were a tool of unfriendly Western governments.

"Our people continue to face a profound humanitarian crisis. This destructive policy of banning humanitarian assistance can be reversed with one letter," Tsvangirai said, demanding that Mbeki pressure Mugabe to agree to this at a summit of regional leaders this weekend."

A SADC summit meeting is scheduled for this coming weekend and it seems that all parties have a different take on how to deal with Zimbabwe at the summit. Mugabe looks bent upon forming a government this week without Tsvangirai (and possibly with Mutambara's small but important number of MPs), while Tsvangirai would likely hope the leaders of Zambia and Botswana--Mugabe's most outspoken critics in SADC--will use the summit to denounce Mugabe's stolen election. The key in all this, once again, is South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki, who, after fending off international efforts at mediation, took on the role as sole mediator on the behalf of SADC.

Meanwhile, international groups such as Human Rights Watch have been doing the important work of showing the extent of violence that has continued since the announcement of talks in July. Their report is available here. Many observers felt the whole process of talks was a tactic to give Mugabe, with the support of SA, more time to find a way to legitimate their illegitimate mandate to lead, and should Mutambara decide to come over to help in that regard, the talks would be a "success" from the standpoint of those who viewed them from the beginning as a way of offering Mugabe a face saving strategy. It would, however, be an extremely unpopular position for Mutambara to accept such as role, and his denial in today's news should be taken seriously. The misinformation that has thus far come out of these secret talks is already at the level readers of the ZANU-PF controlled newspaper, The Herald, are accustomed.

MDC Official Explains Difficulty for Tsvangirai in Talks

Chris McGreal, reporting for the Guardian, cites an MDC official who suggests the difficulties MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai faces in the talks with Robert Mugabe and South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki.

McGreal quotes an unidentified MDC official:

"A spokesman for the opposition said Tsvangirai came under pressure from South
Africa's president, Thabo Mbeki, who is acting as mediator, to allow Mugabe to keep some degree of real power. But the spokesman said the MDC leader argued that would be a betrayal of the voters.

"There is a lot of pressure on
Tsvangirai ... People in the party are telling him that he cannot agree to a deal that does not recognise the people's will and democracy. Mugabe ... should not be allowed to keep power just because he terrorised the population into voting for him.

"The pressure for us is coming from the people. They don't
want to see some kind of half-hearted change. If we were to do that we would lose credibility. If Morgan takes something cosmetic from Zanu-PF he will lose the support of the Zimbabwean people.""

Peta Thornycroft Reports of Stall in Talks while economic crisis worsens

Peta Thornycroft, reporting from Harare for Voice of America, indicates that the Hero's Day speech by Mugabe hints that the talks are not going to come to a quick resolution over the issue of power sharing between Mugabe's ZANU-PF and the MDC. Mugabe's speech indicated that violence was not out of the question for dealing with the MDC. Thornycroft writes:

"During his Hero's Day address, Mr. Mugabe spoke about violence that wracked Zimbabwe between the March 29 elections and the presidential run off on June 27. He said if people try to take away Zimbabwe's sovereignty, then people can only react.

He said that God gives people the power to protect themselves, even if that means violence.

Many analysts believe that Mr. Mugabe was referring to the Movement for Democratic Change. He has long accused the party of being a stooge of the West."

Thornycroft also writes of the sense of urgency about the talks, as the lack of foreign exchange to buy imported food may be the main force driving Mugabe to negotiate after using violence to claim an illegitimate victory in the June 27th run-off election for president. An election in which his opponent, Morgan Tsvangirai of the MDC pull-out of the race after more than 120 MDC activists and supporters had been killed by pro-ZANU-PF paramilitary groups.

Thornycroft explains the dire economic situation:

"...sources say both parties understand that without a deal the present economic chaos in Zimbabwe would quickly deteriorate to social catastrophe as there is very little food and no foreign currency to import it.

Zimbabwe needs western aid to stabilize its currency and reduce inflation of more than two million percent, and to rebuild its shattered industrial and agricultural infrastructure."

While talks stall, violence against MDC continues in Zimbabwe

An AFP wire story reported on NASDAQ today reports of continued violence against MDC officials and supporters.

The report gives account of violence in Eastern Zimbabwe:

"Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights said an urgent high court application had been filed by a lawmaker and five local councillors from the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, or MDC, related to the alleged attacks.

The five local councillors had been forced from their homes and have sought refuge outside of the Nyanga constituency, the rights group said, citing the court case.

The lawmaker is Douglas Mwonzora and the councillors are Edith Baipai, Thenia Nyanhongo, Fidelis Katerere, Munyaradzi Mwonzora and Passmore Mandikuvadza.

Their court filing requests the alleged harassment and assault of opposition members and supporters, as well as the theft of their livestock, be stopped immediately. They are also seeking the dismantling of what they called illegal roadblocks and semi-military bases.

The rights group expressed "serious concern over the continued politically motivated violence and violation of the fundamental rights of perceived and confirmed members of the MDC by war veterans."

The so-called war veterans are hardline supporters of Mugabe, who won a new term as president in June in a one-man election widely condemned as a sham.

The rights group also criticized police "inaction" in reported cases of violence and intimidation."

The SABC (South AFrica) reports on a new report by the Solidarity Peace Trust that details many acts of torture and violence carried out by government supporters against those supporting the opposition:

"The dossier is the first comprehensive account of what's believed to be government-sponsored violence in that country during and after the March 29, 2008 elections. Activist Sharri Eppel says youth militia and war veterans are believed to be behind the attacks. “We've seen meticulous kinds of torture. People having their genitals ripped off with barbed wire, people having needles, threaded repeatedly through their hands.”

Eppel further stated that in other instances people would have their hands and feet smashed repeatedly. People have been abducted, killed and then their bodies have turned up, sometimes weeks later."

The Reports of the Solidarity Peace Trust are available at their website.