Talks Stall, hints of what each side wants

The AFP reports today that the stalled talks have a long way to go to reach a compromise. With Mbeki in Harare to encourage Mugabe to make public statements about his "total committment" to talks, and Morgan Tsvangirai in Senegal to talk to Senegalese President Wade, it isn't difficult to see the main stumbling block. Tsvangirai wants a more serious position for himself in a transitional government, while ZANU-PF wants to create a government of national unity with Tsvangirai as "third vice president".

The article quotes political scientist John Makumbe's views:

" John Makumbe, a political science lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe,
argued that the media coverage was probably accurate.

'Things are not going well. President Mbeki can pretend that everything
is under control. But the body language, even of Mugabe makes it very clear that
there is a deadlock,'he said Thursday in an interview on South Africa's public
broadcaster SA FM.
'I had expected all along that there will be serious
problem on agreeing on a vehicle for transition to democracy; either to adopt a
government of national unity, as canvassed by the ZANU-PF or create a
transitional government, as suggested by the MDC.'"

Insights into the Secret talks and why individuals defeated in the 2008 election find themselves at the table

Journalist and Zimbabwe Times editor Geoffrey Nyarota writes on July 26th for the Zimbabwe Times a very useful observation about the cuurent talks between the ZANU-PF, Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC, and Arthur Mutambara's MDC. Nyarota points out that not all the people negotiating, including ZANU-PF's Patrick Chinamasa, have the mandate of the people to partake. Chinamasa lost his parliamentary seat in the March 29th election but as a key Mugabe insider, still serves as the Minister of Justice.

Nyarota writes:

"From a different prospective the politicians participating in the current talks received the mandate of the people in recent elections. That, of course, is with the notable exception of the delegates representing the breakaway faction of the MDC led by Professor Arthur Mutambara. Professor Welshman Ncube and Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga, as well as Justice Minister, Patrick Chinamasa, representing Zanu-PF, who were totally rejected by voters in their constituencies on March 29.

By some coincidence, only 50 percent of the delegates enjoy the mandate of the people to represent them. These are Tendai Biti and Lovemore Mangoma of the mainstream MDC led by Tsvangirai, as well as Nicholas Goche of Zanu-PF. The other 50 percent are not mandated representatives of the people.

Neither are Madhuku and Chibhebhe.

As if not to be outdone, Ncube and Misihairabwi’s leader, Mutambara, quickly crafted and volunteered what became the first, if unofficial, and so far only concept paper for the Pretoria talks. Clearly overwhelmed by the euphoria generated by the surprise appendage of his own signature to the MoU, Mutambara proposed that Mugabe and Tsvangirai should travel hand in hand to every corner of Zimbabwe and address joint rallies to demonstrate their commitment to a peaceful and prosperous future Zimbabwe.

One difference between Lancaster and Pretoria is dramatic. Muzorewa, Chief Chirau and Sithole returned from the Lancaster House Conference to endure humiliating defeat in the 1980 elections. Twenty-eight years later, Chinamasa, Ncube and Misihairambwi endured equally humiliating defeat in the 2008 parliamentary elections and then skillfully maneuvered their way to sitting around the negotiating table in Pretoria."

Read Nyarota's entire editorial here.

Violence Against MDC continues as Talks Underway

Peta Thornycroft reports today from Harare for the Voice of America that although the MOU for the talks specifically indicated there would be a cessation to the violence during the talks, this has not been the case.

Thornycroft writes:

"Meanwhile, the political violence that has plagued Zimbabwe continues. The violence began after President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF was beaten by Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC in March 29 elections.

Violence escalated until Mr. Tsvangirai withdrew from a June 27 presidential run-off in which Mr. Mugabe later claimed victory. International observers say the run-off was neither free nor fair.

Human rights monitors say the violence has diminished somewhat, but since the parties agreed to talks a week ago three people, all known MDC supporters, have been killed.

In other incidents, a Zimbabwean freelance journalist was savagely beaten in his Harare home. He was later allegedly accused by police of bringing Zimbabwe's name into disrepute.

And, political scientist John Makumbe was questioned by police last week. He was accused of fabricating cases of political violence, according to the state press.

In at least three Zimbabwe districts there is still political tension and many people who fled their homes say they are still too frightened to return home.

In Buhera, in the Manicaland Province, human rights monitors say there are 25 paramilitary bases controlled by ZANU-PF youth that are still operational. In other districts, bases continue to be dismantled, but in many cases ZANU-PF personnel who worked there are still in the districts. Many people say they are fearful of them.

There are curfews in place in the northern parts of Mashonaland East province, in parts of Manicaland and Mashonaland Central, according to human rights monitors who have traveled around those districts in the past 10 days. "

The MOU stated under section 10.1. "Security of persons"

(a) Each Party will issue a statement condemning the promotion and use of violence and call for peace in the country and shall take all measures necessary to ensure that the structures and institutions it controls are not engaged in the perpetration of violence.

(b) The Parties are committed to ensuring that the law is applied fairly and justly to all persons irrespective of political affiliation.

(c) The Parties will take all necessary measures to eliminate all forms of political violence, including by non-state actors, and ensure the security of persons and property.

(d) The Parties agree that, in the interim, they will work to ensure the safety of any displaced persons and their safe return home and that humanitarian and social welfare organizations are enabled to render such assistance as might be required.

10.2. Hate speech

The Parties shall refrain from using abusive language that may incite hostility political intolerance and ethnic hatred or undermine each other."


The full text of the MOU is available at Relief Web.

Third Vice President for Tsvangirai?

The AFP reports today that the talks between ZANU-PF and the MDC have run into trouble one week after beginning. The reporter, talking with unnamed MDC sources, suggests that Morgan Tsvangirai has flown to Pretoria in order to talk with his negotiating team. One source suggested that the talks are at a stalemate because ZANU-PF has failed to offer Tsvangirai anything more than the position of "third Vice President". The level of rumor and speculation runs high, as any talks in Zimbabwe, especially 'secret' talks are prone to increase the already high level of misinformation.

Guardian [UK] Reports imminent shortage of bank notes in Zimbabwe

Chris McGreal continues excellent coverage from Harare, reporting today of fears over the shortage of paper to print Zimbabwe's hyperinflated currency.

The problem for ZANU-PF is that since the German banknote company stopped supply paper during the violent presidental run-off campaign, they have not been able to find alternative sources locally.

McGreal reports:

"Zimbabwe was looking to Malaysia as an alternative source of paper but the government feared that the licence for the specialist software supplied by another European firm would be withdrawn as part of the boycott of Robert Mugabe's regime.

The software is supplied by Jura JSP, a Hungarian-Austrian company that specialises in security printing. A knowledgeable source inside Fidelity Printers said the software issue had created an air of panic.

"It's a major problem. They are very concerned that the licence will be withdrawn or not renewed. They are trying to find ways around it, looking at the software, but it's very technical. They are in a panic because without the software they can't print anything," he said.

On Monday, the central bank issued a $100bn note, the highest denomination to date but worth only about 7p, printed on what remains of stocks of the German-supplied paper.
The source said the firm had been told that new supplies of currency paper were coming from Malaysia but it was unable to meet the current demand for cash created by hyperinflation that economists estimated was running at about 40m%."

McGreal reports the real issue will be how will the ZANU-PF controlled government continue to pay soldiers?

The LA Times ran a very good insider story (without a byline) last week on the impending shortage of banknote paper, and the crazy world of Fidelity Presses, where 1,000 workers worked 24/7 seven days a week to keep printing more money.

The author of the LA Times story illustrates the meaning of hyper-inflation for those who can afford to drink beer in one of Harare's downtown establishments:

"Before the crunch, a beer at a bar in Harare, the capital, cost 15 billion Zimbabwean dollars. At 5 p.m. July 4, it cost 100 billion ($4 at the time) in the same bar.An hour later, the price had gone up to 150 billion ($6)."

VOA Interviews MDC leaders and others about the Talks between ZANU-PF and MDC

Blessing Zulu reports for Voice of America of the SADC and AU sanctioned talks that were scheduled to begin today in South Africa.

Zulu reports that Mugabe and MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai reportedly had a 90-minute talk after the formal signing of the MOU in Harare on Monday.

Zulu provides the following context for the talks:

"Power-sharing talks between Zimbabwe's ruling party and opposition were expected to begin in earnest on Wednesday following the signing early this week of a memorandum of understanding setting out the daunting task ahead of the crisis negotiators.

Some observers expressed skepticism that the ruling ZANU-PF and opposition Movement for Democratic Change negotiating teams could address all of the issues on the table within the two weeks that have been allocated for coming up with a power-sharing agreement.

The agreement would provide for a government of national unity or a transitional authority to run the country or revise the constitution and prepare the ground for new elections."

Zulu also reports that Tsvangirai has said he will not agree to anything without the support of Zimbabwean civil society and trade union. This is an interesting development, as Welshman Ncube, who supports Arthur Mutambara's wing of the MDC, had said earlier in the week that civil society would like to see someone other than Tsvangirai or Mugabe as the leader of any government of national unity.

There are interviews with Welshman Ncube, Nelson Chamisa of the Tsvangirai MDC, ZANU-PF's Chris Mutsvangwa, and lawyer Theresa Mugadza

BBC Coverage of Response in Harare to MOU between ZANU-PF and MDC

Brian Hungwe, writing for the BBC Africa, presents views on the street as news of yesterday's Memorandum of Understanding was signed by Mugabe, Tsvangirai, and Mutambara.

Here is Hungwe's description of the signing ceremony:

"There was a handshake and a smile, but no embrace. It appears the rivals did not want to physically commit themselves that far.

The body language failed to provide a clue as to whether the ice had really been broken in the hotel where they held a brief meeting.

Mr Mutambara seemed at ease, Mr Tsvangirai disinterested, and Mr Mugabe was, as usual, self-confident.

The handshake was a temporary triumph for South African President Thabo Mbeki and his much-criticised "quiet diplomacy" policy on Zimbabwe.

At last, the rivals had come face to face.

They signed a commitment to "end polarisation, divisions, conflict and intolerance that have characterised our country's politics."

The talks are due to be completed in two weeks."

Hungwe described the difference responses of people in Harare:

"In the townships, there is some confusion.

"We wait and see, it's difficult to trust Mr Mugabe," says Caleb, 34, from Chitungwiza, a dormitory town just south of Harare.

But Mudiwa, of Highfields said: "We trust all our leaders, we hope whatever they will debate, is good for us all."

"This is not the time to outdo one another, but to think about the suffering of the ordinary people."

Around the streets of Harare, the news came as a shock to many.

It drew laughter from those who thought it was a hoax, but excitement from others.

A security officer at a local hotel said people were looking forward to making sure "people are having enough food and they are having enough medication from the hospitals".

Taxi driver Johannes Phiri said: "I am quite happy, what's has been happening was very bad."

"With the agreement, everything will be all right so that we can survive and lead our normal lives again.""

Perhaps the most telling response was from a rural Zimbabwean who lost three brothers in the political violence during the campaigning for the last election:

"Leslie Madamombe of Mashonaland Central province lost three brothers a week before the country's 27 June presidential run-off.

One was shot point-blank and the others forced to drink a lethal Chinese paraquat herbicide by militias from the ruling Zanu-PF party.

"[The agreement] should have happened long back," he says. "Nothing will ever bring my three dead brothers back."

Leslie's mother and elder brother Hilton still fear for their lives, guarded by armed police at a Harare hospital.

"I'm bitter, but I however look forward with hope," he says."

Africa Confidential Reports details of ZANU-PF Money trail

As mentioned in the previous posting on the ZSG blog, the ability of insiders in ZANU-PF to pilfer foreign exchange earnings from the most lucrative mining interests in Zimbabwe has lead to the re-investment of these funds in lucrative opportunities elsewhere. Africa Confidential reports on July 18th of some of the strategies being used in relation to mining, in this case asbestos mining. Africa Confidential reports:

"Earlier this month, a judge granted AMG Global Nominees an appeal hearing for 3 November in its long-running fight to take control of the London-listed Africa Resources
Limited (ARL) and its asbestos mines, owned by Zimbabwean businessman Mutumwa Mawere (AC Vol 49 No 12).An article on 27 June in Zimbabwe's daily state mouthpiece The Herald let slip that AMG Global Nominees 'represents Government [sic] interests'. AMG Administrator Afaras Gwaradzimba, appointed by Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa, said in
an interview that AMG had received 'US$2 million from the Reserve Bank' in a bid to force Mawere to divest control in ARL. Charles Hewetson, a partner at Reed Smith, told AC that Gwaradzimba was independently appointed and the government's relationship with AMG was as a creditor to the asbestos mines. "

The entire article gives much greater detail.

How ZANU-PF puts pressure on Western Firms in order to Silence Criticisms

The AFP reports today in an article without a byline "Zimbabwe eyes foreign firms for takeover", that the Mugabe regime has announced it is continuing to review companies with foreign interests as possible candidates for state takeover. The article explains:

"'We will identify the potential partners and the companies that could be taken over,' Paul Mangwana, the minister in charge of "economic empowerment," told AFP, citing a recent economic reform.

He said British investors held stakes in at least 499 Zimbabwean companies while 353 firms have shareholders from other European countries. A recent act came into force aimed at "indigenisation" -- boosting local ownership of companies.

State media reported meanwhile that companies heeding a call by world powers for United Nations sanctions against President Robert Mugabe's government would be seized.

The Sunday News reported that the government was auditing companies owned or partly held by Western shareholders, with a view to inviting other foreign investors from "friendly" countries to take a share in them. "

Still citing the Sunday News article, the AFP explains how China and other "Far East" companies stand to benefit from the review:

""In the context of growing Western hostility, the government is planning to invite companies from friendly countries to move in and take over those companies that will close down," the newspaper quoted a government source as saying.

"Gone are the days of political or generalised invitations to foreigners. We need to move a gear up and approach friendly countries with sector-specific or even enterprise-specific proposals," said the source.

Investors from countries considered friendly, particularly from the Far East, would be lined up in a bid to boost the economic stabilisation process in the country, the report said.

The indigenisation law aims to give native Zimbabweans at least 51 percent ownership of the shares of public companies and other businesses, the Sunday Mail state newspaper reported in March."

Of course, the really serious concern for western companies will be over platinum mining rights. Zimbabwe has already made gestures to allow Chinese firms access, but the real test will be whether the current regime is willing to give up the large current payouts from South African and British firms in return for promised future payments from the Chinese. With so little foreign exchange earning coming to Zimbabwe outside of mining, it is doubtful that the ZANU-PF government will risk threatening the South Africans and the British mining concerns simply to make a point. But the balancing act of Chinese and Western interests will continue to be manipulated by the ruling elite, even as the rhetoric of the "Look East Policy" and cozy relationships with Barclays Bank, Standard Charter Bank, Anglo Platinum, Impala Platinum, Aquarius Platinum South Africa, and Comec continue to offer financial "opportunities" for ZANU-PF's inner circle.

African response to Zimbabwe's sham elections and political violence shows new spirit of criticism

MICHELLE FAUL of the Associated Press wrote a week ago about the divided response from African politicians this time around following the sham June 27th run-off election.

"A younger generation of African leaders appears willing to break from the clubbiness that has characterized the governing elites on this continent where authoritarian rule has long been the norm.

Among the most outspoken has been Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, the Liberian president who is the continent's only female leader.

On a visit to South Africa this week, she was the first African leader to support proposed U.N. sanctions against Zimbabwe's leaders, saying they send a "strong message" that the world will not tolerate violence to retain power.

"It's important, because it's the first time that we are seeing on the African continent that leadership has transitioned from the old perceptions," said Chris Maroleng, a South African political analyst.

"We're seeing more leaders beginning to embrace their own democratic notion," he added."

In addition to the above mentioned criticisms from Liberia, Faul lists the other outspoken leaders who have chosen to speak out against the abuses of power by ZANU-PF:

"

They include Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, a lawyer who is his country's third leader since independence in 1964; former army commander Seretse Ian Khama of Botswana, Africa's most enduring democracy; and Nigeria's Umar Yar'Adua, only the third civilian leader since 1966, though he still is fighting a court battle over his fraud-riddled election.

Mugabe's June 27 runoff "was neither free nor fair and therefore the legitimacy of his presidency is in question. He cannot wish that away," Kenya's Foreign Minister Moses Wetangula told The Associated Press."

Mugabe's strongest support have come from his allies in the Congo Wars, Kabila's DRC, Angola, and Namibia.

Faul explains how the lack of criticism from the African Union after the election showed the weakness of the AU to live up to its declared principles state at its 2002 reconstitution, replacing the discredited Organization of African Union:

"The African leaders also retained South African President Thabo Mbeki as mediator for Zimbabwe, ignoring the Zimbabwe opposition's rejection of him and widespread condemnation that his 8-year-long "softly, softly" approach to Mugabe has hastened Zimbabwe's collapse.

Liberia's Sirleaf said the African Union could only maintain its credibility if it pronounced the June 27 runoff unacceptable.

The prevailing African silence over Mugabe marks a landmark failure for the union, set up in 2002 to replace the discredited Organization of African Unity, which had become little more than a dictators' club. The new union was to be the flagship for an African renaissance based on democracy and Africans solving African problems.

At its inaugural summit in 2002, leaders committed themselves to holding fair elections at regular intervals, to allow opposition parties to campaign freely and to set up independent electoral commissions to monitor polls.

Mugabe failed on every point.

While the old organization pledged noninterference in member states, the new union includes a Peace and Security Council, structured on the U.N. Security Council, that has the right to intervene when human rights are grossly violated or crimes against humanity perpetrated.

The only African intervention has been to send troops to back Comoros government soldiers in ousting a coup leader from the remote Indian Ocean island of Anjouan in March — an easy target."

This week, AU Commission Chairman Jean Ping arrived in South Africa to help guarantee negotiations would start, and it appears today, according to the Associated Press, that an agreement has been reached for talks to begin.

British Mining Firm Camec Comes Under Fire for Direct Aid to Mugabe's Government

Brian Latham at Bloomberg.com reports an interview with the MDC's Roy Bennett in which Bennett suggested that mining contracts granted by Mugabe's government to the London-based mining company, CAMEC, may need to be reviewed and investigated.

Latham writes:

"Permits that may be re-tendered or canceled because of links to the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front include those awarded to Central African Mining & Exploration Co., Bennett said in a telephone interview today from Johannesburg, South Africa. The MDC's plans were reported by the Financial Times earlier today.

``There is a tangle of business intrigues involving foreign and local companies tied to Zanu-PF, Camec among them,'' Bennett said. ``All these need to be investigated thoroughly and where wrong-doing or corruption are found, we'll cancel contracts and re-tender them legally.''

Camec in April agreed to pay $120 million for a stake in a platinum venture part owned by Zimbabwe's state-owned mining company and said it would lend a further $100 million to President Robert Mugabe's government. The southern African nation has the world's second-biggest platinum reserves, after South Africa.

Ben Brewerton, a spokesman in London for Camec, said that while the company wouldn't respond directly to Bennett's comments, its activities in Zimbabwe are in full compliance with all relevant national and international laws.

``Camec believes that making early stage investments in countries which are in transition is the best way to help the people of Africa while also generating shareholder value,'' Brewerton said in an e-mailed statement. "


The timing of Camec's payments, in April during the run-off campaign and during the intense political violence against the opposition shows the extent to which international mining concerns are competing for access to Zimbabwe's platinum. Worried about China's ability to gain favor through arms shipments and "no questions asked" loans, these British and South African mining companies are willing to make substantial payments directly to the ZANU-PF regime.

Camec has been involved in negotiations with the government in the DRC for mining rights, and like most mining companies in Southern Africa, know how to play the political game. In August 2007, they were involved in a tussle over DRC mining contracts. See article in the Independent [UK] by Danny Forston.

One might wonder why the MDC's Roy Bennett is talking to the Press about renegotiating mining contracts, given the MDC's bargaining position at the moment. Unless there is the hope that mining companies will help finance the MDC as a hedge against a possible future GNU? If the MDC does receive funds from international mining concerns it would raise the interesting question: Could ZANU-PF criticize them as "imperialists" and "sell-outs" if both parties receive funds from the same sources?

Even as the economy is a nightmare for the majority of Zimbabweans, the ruling elite has access to large amounts of dollars and no shortage of sources. Targeting sanctions to these individuals may make it more difficult to stash money abroad, but it doesn't make it impossible. For example, re-investing such monies in DRC mining concessions gained during Zimbabwe's defense of Kabila Senior and Junior during the Congo wars is one way to keep it out of Western banks. There are no shortage of ways to hide and/or invest money in the "shadow economies of war".

Excellent Insight into Daily Economic Survival in Harare

Chris McGreal of The Guardian reports today (July 18, 2008) from Harare of the hardships people confront. He starts with a description of a woman who lives in Dzivaresekwa who walks with others for 2.5 hours to her job in the city center because transport costs have become too high. The woman, who makes more money from informal trading--bringing food from rural areas to sell in the city--keeps her formal sector job because, as she puts it, "'I may never get another one.'"

McGreal then describes the plight of retired war veteran and diplomat, Ishmael Dube, and the impossibility of his government pension to cover even the basic costs of a middle-class life in Harare. Having already sold much of his valuable possessions, his cars and televisions, he is in debt to the private schools where his children attend school. McGreal describes a meeting with Dube at the upscale Westgate shopping center:

"Dube wants to meet in the Wimpy at what had been one of Harare's most upmarket shopping malls, the Westgate complex. It was built with South African money a decade ago and attracted boutiques and bookshops. Most are closed now. Dube wants to order chips but the waitress says there aren't any. No hamburgers, either, despite the luridly coloured menu on the table offering the usual meat-filled buns. Instead she lays down a worn photocopy of typed offerings. The list includes pig's trotters and knuckle bones at $90bn a dish.

"A lot of us have been diagnosed with high blood pressure," says Dube. "It's not surprising. We've been relying on beer for stress management - a drink or two a night. But beer last week was $10bn a quart. This week it was $20bn on Monday (July 7). On Wednesday it was $40bn and now it is $60bn. So this thing we have been using as stress management is beyond our reach. That is very bad." By yesterday, beer was $150bn a quart."

McGreal then explains in detail the ways people are surviving as the Zimbabwean dollar becomes more and more worthless each day and much of the economy has become "dollarized".

He concludes on an ominous note that is worth considering as the AU, South Africa, and the UN delay in getting involved in reaching some sort of new political dispensation in Zimbabwe:

"" so far, there has not been any of the popular protest - either against the economic crisis or the stolen election - that has hit other African countries at such times, most recently in Kenya. "A lot of people regard Zimbabweans as docile," says Dube. "But there's docility based on intelligence that says if there's a chance to survive there is no point in risking your life. But people have their backs against the wall and they are wondering if they can survive.

"It's firefighting. Us and them: ordinary people and the government. No one has a plan. We're all just firefighting to get through each day". "

Excellent reporting. Article should be read in full.

AU Commission Chairman Ping to arrive in South Africa to Discuss Zimbabwe Negotiations

The Voice of America's Blessing Zulu and Jonga Kandemiiri report on the on-going "talks about talks" between Mugabe's ZANU-PF and Tsvangarai's MDC. Indications are that the African Union's Commission Chairman Jean Ping's meeting this Friday with South African President Thabo Mbeki will be a test of how serious the AU mandate for Mbeki to proceed more quickly this time.

Apparently 8 years of inaction has now been noticed, and South Africa's defense of Mugabe over the last two weeks at the G8 Summit, the African Union Summit, and at the UN Security Council--none of which resulted in tough sanctions--has allowed Mbeki to come out the sole negotiator. The MDC has reportedly demanded an end to the political violence and the release of political prisoners--MDC supporters arrested during the run-off election campaign--as part of their conditions for talks. Perhaps the most important demand is the MDC's request that the AU add another mediator in addition to Mbeki, as the MDC's mistrust of Mbeki has been clearly stated.

The VOA report indicates that the ZANU-PF government has been releasing some MDC supporters from jails, but there still remain many held behind bars on trumped up charges, including elected MDC members of parliament. The article reports:

"Political analyst Farai Maguwu told reporter Jonga Kandemiiri of VOA's
Studio 7 for Zimbabwe that by releasing MDC activists, the government has
responded to pressure from the international community and regional leaders to
show good faith in the talks."

"But MDC officials point out that parliamentarian-elect Pearson
Mbalekwa of Zvishavane-Ngezi constituency in Midlands province, and 15 other MDC
activists, are still held in Hwange prison. A former ZANU-PF parliamentarian and
Central Intelligence Organization operative, Mbalekwa broke with the government
in 2005 over the forced eviction and demolition campaign that it named Operation
Murambatsvina, Shona for "Drive Out the Trash." Sources said Mbalekwa spent 16
days without bathing before being transferred to the Hwange prison."

Zimbabwe Government to Benefit from Ivory Sales, China to purchase Ivory

Catherine Brahic, online environment reporter for the NewScientist Blog, reports today that Zimbabwe, along with other Southern African nations, will be permitted to sell a portion of its Ivory stockpile to China.



Brahic asks if the overseeing body, the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES), has even considered whether or not Zimbabwe's government should be able to directly profit from the sales. CITES defense at the moment is that "All profits generated by the sale need to be put towards elephant conservation or community development projects." How does CITES realistically think this is possible in the current political climate in Zimbabwe?

UN Security Council Draft Resolution to Meet Opposition, Names Mugabe and Associates

Daniel Howden of the Independent [UK] reports today that a draft UN resolution calling for tougher sanctions against Mugabe and his close associates will likely run into opposition in the Security Council not only from China, South Africa, and Russia, but also Burkina Faso, the other African nation currently with a vote on the council.

Howden writes:

"A pitched battle has been under way since Tuesday at the UN Security Council as the United States and Britain sought to force a showdown over Zimbabwe. South Africa has been holding the line at the 15-nation council against measures including an international arms embargo, as well as travel bans and asset freezes targeting each of the 14 named individuals.

It was unclear whether London and Washington had the votes to win the battle as one British diplomat close to the effort said it was "touch and go whether we get them". The uncertainty was added to by the Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev, who went half way to meeting the West's demands in Japan by signing up to the G8 statement promising to punish the culprits in Zimbabwe, but then stopped short of supporting UN sanctions.

In an unlikely twist, the West African nation of Burkina Faso has found itself in the diplomatic spotlight. The second poorest country in the world, it has a UN vote as a temporary member of the council and has so far resisted pressure to back sanctions. Zimbabwe's Foreign Minister, Simbarashe Mumbengegwi, was in Burkina yesterday lobbying against a UN vote.

Mr Mugabe's inner circle, named in the draft resolution, has each amassed personal fortunes while overseeing the steepest collapse of a peacetime economy ever recorded. The draft resolution accuses them of "undermining the democratic process" and having "ordered, planned, or participated in" the campaign of political terror that has killed more than 100 people, displaced 200,000 and made the country an international pariah."

Howden also lists the 13 associates of Mugabe listed in the draft Security Council Resolution.

As Negotiations Seem to be in the works, Russia backs off from Support of UN Sanctions

Donna Bryson of the Associated Press reports today that the MDC and ZANU-PF have agreed to begin negotiating in South Africa today. The news broke as Tendai Biti's lawyer successfully obtained Biti's passport from the government so that he could go to South Africa to start talks. Prior to the June 27 run-off election, Biti was jailed on treason charges.


The same report suggests that Russia has backed away from their reported support at the G8 summit of tougher sanctions on Mugabe and his generals. Donna Bryson reports:

"Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Wednesday that a strong statement by the Group of Eight nations on Zimbabwe will not necessarily lead to sanctions over Robert Mugabe's widely criticized re-election.

Medvedev's statement indicated Russia could veto or abstain in a U.N. Security Council vote expected this week on a U.S. draft resolution calling for sanctions over state-supported election violence in Zimbabwe. Violence and intimidation there prompted the opposition candidate to pull out of the race with Mugabe."

Meanwhile, ZANU-PF is lobbying Burkina Faso, the African nation currently with a vote on the Security Council.

Bryson reports:

"Zimbabwe's Foreign Minister Simbarashe Mumbengegwi met Tuesday in Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso, with the West African nation's President Blaise Compaore. Burkina Faso is currently a member of the U.N. Security Council.

In Burkina Faso, Mumbengegwi reiterated statements from Mugabe that he was ready to form a unity government with members of opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai's party. Zimbabwe may see at least talking about talks as a way to ward off sanctions, but Mumbengegwi made clear Mugabe envisioned a leading role for himself, something the opposition and Mugabe's critics in the West have rejected."

Bryson's analysis points to Mugabe's long history of "talking about talks" in order to ward off criticism. To date, South Africa has facilitated such a strategy. Will this be negotiations as usual? Or is there now sufficient urgency for both Mugabe's inner-circle and South Africa?

William Saidi on why Sanctions against Mugabe and Company will help, not hurt, Zimbabweans

Veteran Zimbabwean journalist Bill Saidi has recently written an editorial for Pambazuka News in favor of increased sanctions against Mugabe and his cronies. Saidi dispels the oft-repeated objection that sanctions will hurt "ordinary Zimbabweans" most. Saidi writes:

"Zimbabwe’s economy is in the proverbial doldrums, some of it totally unrelated to sanctions, but caused by malfeasance and maladministration. For instance, Mugabe himself has railed against his own cabinet ministers over the corruption involving the land reform programme. Some of them have two, three or even four farms, when he has decreed that they should have only one. Moreover, others have not developed these previously white-owned properties to their previous level of productivity, using them for speculative purposes, instead.

In insisting that the sanctions have hurt most ordinary, average-income earners, the government had hoped to persuade voters not to continue with their support for the opposition. The idea has been to paint them with the same brush as the West, which the government alleges launched its anti-Zimbabwe campaign after the land reform programme.

All this has failed to impress most voters, because, for a majority of workers, the luxuries accorded to cabinet ministers and the heads of parastatal companies are so lavish, they cannot imagine the country suffering any real pain from the sanctions – unless there is a political reason for making the workers the main targets and sufferers.

And since the opposition draws most of its support from the workers, that conclusion is not difficult for them to arrive at. Tsvangirai once said he believed if the South Africans imposed any kind of sanctions on Zimbabwe, they would have such a devastating impact on the economy Mugabe would soon rush to Mbeki on bended knees to beg him to reverse the decision, in return for anything he wanted – including the immediate re-opening of direct talks with the opposition."

The issue of whether or not South Africa will cooperate fully with Sanctions is a tough one. When a similar situation developed in the 1960s and 1970s, South Africa paid lip service to international sanctions against Ian Smith's Rhodesian Front government, but provided a lifeline of fuel and other goods to the regime. In addition, the United States continued to buy chromium from Southern Rhodesia well into the 1970s. The same will likely occur with platinum mining today. It is one thing to freeze overseas assets and send the children of Zimbabwean military leaders away from universities in Australia. Quite another to stop mining platinum and denying the leadership large payouts from the mining concerns.

Saidi's article covers more topics than sanctions, and should be read in full.

G8 Leaders Agree on tougher Sanctions Against Mugabe and Associate

Thabo Mbeki's diplomatic efforts at the G8 Summit in Japan were less successful as his work at the AU summit last week in Egypt. As Larry Elliot and Patrick Wintour report for the Guardian [UK], British PM Gordon Brown used a graphic photo of the charred body of MDC activist Joshua Bakacheza to get the point across to the other leaders that it was time to take a tough stance against Mugabe.

Elliot and Wintour report:

"

The backing for Britain's tough stance came after Brown handed photographs of the charred body of Joshua Bakacheza, a member of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, to G8 and African leaders at the talks in Hokkaido.

A Downing Street source said: "Joshua is just one of the many innocent people murdered by Mugabe's thugs in recent weeks, but by highlighting the way he was brutally murdered while helping a widow and her children, the prime minister was telling other world leaders that this is a tragedy which is going on right now as they sit talking, and every day we wait to act, more innocent people will suffer."

Bakacheza was stopped on June 25 by three unmarked trucks, then seized by 16 men armed with AK-47 rifles. He and his companion, the widow of a murdered MDC activist, were taken to a farm. He was questioned on his involvement in the MDC then shot three times. His body was found three days later. Another MDC activist, Tendai Chidziwo, was also shot but survived.

The G8 decision brings Russia into agreement for UN action against the Mugabe regime, and rules out the possibility that Moscow will use its veto to block action at the security council in New York in the next few days.

If agreed, sanctions would be imposed worldwide on Mugabe and 11 other Zimbabwean government officials, leading to the freezing of their overseas assets and a ban on their travelling abroad."

Now the sanctions debate moves to back to New York and the UN. If Russia is now allegedly supportive of the idea, how will China vote? The idea of gaining access to Zimbabwe's platinum will have to be weighed against any fallout a month before the Olympics begin in Beijing.

Political Killings Continue After Elections--

Jan Raath reporting from Harare today provides evidence of continued killings and beatings by ZANU-PF thugs. The targets have been those MDC supporters who had asked for protection from the South African embassy and had been moved to an abandoned military base in Ruwa, outside of Harare. The camp was invaded by men with rifles and clubs early in the morning and people sleeping in the old squash courts were beaten.

Raath reports:

"Up to 20 masked men, armed with shotguns and knives, burst into the Ruwa rehabilitation centre east of Harare, clubbing men, women and children with gun butts as they slept in the squash courts of the old military base.

At the same time, another armed gang invaded a camp at Gokwe, north of Harare, where other families targeted in the state-sponsored violence had been sheltering."

...

"The opposition Movement for Democratic Change, the key targets of the state-sponsored campaign, reported yesterday that the violence was far from over, with at least 20 killings since the election, bringing the death toll to 109 since March."

All of this while world leaders explore diplomatic pressures and while Thabo Mbeki and the South African government continue to run interference against any concerted attempts at stronger sanctions against Mugabe and his inner circle. Botswana has been outspoken in its criticism of Mugabe, and now there are reports of military exercises along the Zimbabwean border by Botswana's forces. The alignment of SADC countries for and against Mugabe has more potential for future conflict than one might at first assume. The strong ties between Mugabe and the Namibian military, as well as the Angolan military--as all three profited from their ventures defending Kabila in the DRC--stands in contrast to the current opposition to Mugabe from Botswana and Zambia. The big power in the region, South Africa, still seems firmly in support of Mugabe, but as events at the G8 summit in Japan have shown, the ability of South Africa to speak for all of Sub-Saharan Africa in regards to debt relief and increased investment and aid from the G8 is hampered by Mbeki's support of Mugabe. The next South African president may not continue down this path.

Peta Thornycroft, reporting about the attacks on Monday for the Telegraph, quotes one of the refugees at the camp after the attack:

""The screaming and the noise of what they were doing was terrible, I don't even know how many were hurt, I couldn't see," said a 45-year-old man who escaped from the camp.

He believes scores of people were injured and many, including women and their infants, were kidnapped or fled into the bush to escape.

Most of the group are from rural areas who first sought protection at the MDC's Harvest House headquarters in Harare, but after it was raided by police several times moved to the position outside the embassy.

"We knew President (Thabo) Mbeki was mediating the situation and we thought they would help us," said the man.

"We moved to Ruwa because the South Africans told us we would be safe, but we are not safe.""

At what point does the "responsibility to protect" fall on the shoulders of the South African government. Are they not the ones most adamant that this must be solved locally? To what extent is the political violence in Zimbabwe beginning to parallel that of the Sudanese government both in the Southern Sudan and more recently in Darfur? South Africa needs to take a more active role in protecting Zimbabweans from ZANU-PF violence, and if they are not capable of doing so, they should be active in calling on an international peacekeeping force to provide some sort of buffer between those already identified as MDC or alleged MDC who are on the receiving end of the violence. How can the MDC negotiate with Mugabe, as the South Africans wish, while their supporters are murdered and beaten with impunity? This does not seem to be anywhere near the situation in Kenya when Odinga's supporters were quite capable of inflicting a great deal of violence and it became mixed with ethnic political violence in places like Nyakuru. Zimbabwe cannot be viewed as a similar situation where a government of national unity can suddenly appear. What leverage does the MDC have in such a negotiation? It is only the nations in the region and the AU who can provide the MDC legitimacy. Some have spoken out bravely, but the majority are willing to accept Mugabe's political violence and sham election as business as usual.

Liberian President Johnson Sirleaf Speaks out Against Mugabe's sham election at AU Summit in Egypt.

A press release from the Liberian government outlines President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf call "on the African Union to pronounce the June 27th elections in Zimbabwe as not credible and declare the results unacceptable, if the Union is to maintain its credibility."

"The President spoke today during the 13th Ordinary Session of the African Union (AU) in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, when she made her intervention to colleagues during a closed session. She said the international community should work with the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to find a permanent solution to the situation in Zimbabwe. She put forward Liberia as a case in point, saying the 1985 election was endorsed by Africa and the world, which frustrated the true will of the people of Liberia and subsequently engendered a fourteen year civil war that left over two hundred thousand persons dead. The Liberian leader called on the African Union to be courageous to say that ‘all is not well in Zimbabwe’ and that the request by SADC for a postponement of the June 27 Zimbabwean elections should be heeded. "

"The President reminded Summit participants that the African Union Observer Mission declared the June 27th elections fell short of the accepted AU standards, and that this was a similar position taken by the Pan African Parliament and the United Nations Security Council. She urged Summit participants to take a firm stance as well: ‘All these persons and institutions cannot be wrong, cannot be conspiratorial as we may be made to believe,’ she stressed. President Johnson Sirleaf also emphasized that the call for a peacekeeping mission in Zimbabwe is not realistic, adding that it may be necessary for SADC, in concert with the African Union Peace and Security Council, to put in place some civilian peace monitors who might constitute an early warning system in order to monitor and prevent further escalation of the crisis. She finally called on the AU be consistent with the standards it promotes."

Important points raised by Sirleaf Johnson. In particular the comparison to the sham elections in Liberia in 1985 that legitimated Samuel Doe's presidency (with the full support of the United States at the time), and this was followed by 17 years of civil war in Liberia. One only hopes war will be avoided in the Zimbabwean case.

Another important point is that both the AU observers and the Pan African Parliament observers have reported back to say that the elections were not up to AU or international standards of fairness. Shouldn't that have been sufficient grounds for the AU summit to show Mugabe the door? Apparently the number of AU presidents who have been elected in less than legitimate ways outnumber those who have had fair elections. "Democracy" and "human rights" have been concepts to manipulate in the past, during the Cold War, during the Structural Adjustment period of the mid 1990s, and in recent times, but unfortunately this lowest common denominator mentality works to protect the worst offenders.

President Sirleaf Johnson deserves praise for her role as Africa's first elected female president. She consistently shows her abilities both in Liberia and in the AU. If only more of her counterparts in other AU nations had as much 'guts' as she does.

Behind doors conversation with Mugabe at the AU Summit

Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade has reported to the AFP that there were attempts behind closed doors to convince Mugabe to deal directly with Morgan Tsvangirai. According to Wade's account, Mugabe predictably stated such negotiations would be impossible from his position.

"Senegal's President Abdoulaye Wade said his Zimbabwean counterpart had snubbed the idea of sharing power with the MDC after it was floated by Mbeki in closed-door talks at the summit.

'He (Mugabe) told me this is not possible, that he has his supporters," said Wade. "I reminded him that the MDC is a real force and that if a prime minister had to be chosen by his level of representation, it could only be Tsvangirai.' "

The articles conclusion is thoughtful, as now the difficulty comes in whether or not the MDC should participate at all, at any level, even local government. Having won a majority in Parliament, do they now take these seats? Or do they completely boycott participation given the bogus presidential election?

" Analysts have said that while Tsvangirai's withdrawal from the election intensified criticism of Mugabe, the opposition will likely be forced to negotiate with the veteran leader or face being sidelined.

Takura Zhangazha, director of the Media Institute of Southern Africa, told AFP on Wednesday the MDC's position "has to be very clear to the people of Zimbabwe."

"The question is will they participate in local government, parliamentary, or senatorial and activities?" he said.

"That is a critical point and if they are not clear, Mugabe and his government will use that to their advantage to divide them." "

Progressive Teachers Union of Zimbabwe Treasurer goes missing

The Zimbabwean (Online) reports the following Alert on July 1st:

"ZCTU Alert

The Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) has learnt that the Treasurer of the Progressive Teachers’ Union of Zimbabwe (PTUZ), Ladistous Zunde, has gone missing and the union is fearing for his life.

Mr Zunde has been in hiding since Friday 27 June 2008 after unknown people visited his home, tried to abduct his son and harassed his wife. The same visitors have been visiting his house on several occasions in three cars one of which has a registration number AAC 2022.

According to PTUZ, on Monday, 30 June 2008, the visitors became aggressive demanding access to Zunde’s house and sensing danger, the union decided that Zunde leave Harare. However since he left Harare in a bus, nothing has been heard about Zunde as his phone continue ringing without anyone answering.

The ZCTU is informed that other strange visitors in a Zanu PF car also visited PTUZ offices in Bulawayo, 400 km from Harare, looking for the union office secretary. Fortunately she was not in the office.

PTUZ has since closed its head office in Harare saying lives of its officers was in danger."

Such news indicates that the campaign against progressive forces in Zimbabwe has not stopped with the election of June 27th.

"Mwanawasa's stroke threatens political turmoil"

On the eve of the African Union summit in Egypt, Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa suffered a stroke and has since been flown to Paris for treatment. As this July 2nd, 2008, IRIN article describes, this may lead to political turmoil in Zambia. Mwanawasa's stroke is also a set back for Zimbabwe as he has been a strong voice, along with his diplomatic counterparts in Botswana, in criticizing Mugabe and the abuses of power during the presidential run-off campaign. He has also been critical of South Africa's "quite diplomacy".

In Zimbabwe: "the Grind Goes On"

An informative article from IRIN (The Integrated Regional Information Networks) interviews workers in Harare and explains their sense of dejection this week after the "one-man" election of Mugabe. One worker, explains the mood and his own economic woes, and this is someone with a decent job:

"This is no joke - people have been operating like zombies," he told IRIN. "People are listless, dejected, have no interest in their work and there are now very few smiles and laughter at the work place."

"Dejected" perhaps fails to convey the strength of Shamhu's feelings. When Mugabe lost the first round of the presidential race to opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai on 29 March, he said he had dared to hope that change could finally come to Zimbabwe after eight straight years of recession and increasing political repression.

The opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) had won a majority in parliament, and Tsvangirai almost scored an overwhelming majority in the presidential vote, which would have given him a first-round victory against Mugabe, 84, who has ruled since independence in 1980.

"At the time I was ready to skip the country and go to South Africa, Botswana, Mozambique or Zambia, but when the government lost the election my hopes were revived that a better Zimbabwe, with jobs and a normal life, was about to return." ...

Instead, Tsvangirai pulled out of the 27 June run-off, citing the political violence that had driven thousands from their homes, had injured hundreds, and claimed the lives of over 80 MDC officials and supporters since March.

Rather than the financial aid and goodwill that was likely to have greeted a new government, Mugabe's swearing-in as president and apparent determination to ignore international condemnation of the ballot has left Zimbabweans to struggle along with daily shortages of the most basic household needs, and an inflation rate that could be as high as 10 million percent.

"To put it simply, I earn Z$300 billion a month. The bank only allows a maximum withdrawal of Z$25 billion a day. Bus fare for one person to town is Z$10 billion, which means I spend $20 billion per day on transport," Shamhu said. Today's exchange rate is roughly Z$30 billion to US$1.

"A decent meal in lunch-break costs Z$25 billion, and it also means I have to spend four hours in a queue every day. At home my wife and I do not have maize-meal [the staple food], sugar, milk, soap, electricity and water. I have had to park my car because fuel is not available. With the prospects of another five years under Mugabe, how can you expect anybody to look forward to the following day?"

Psychologist Paddington Japajapa said people appeared to have symptoms akin to post-traumatic stress disorder - a condition associated with horrific experiences. "The condition manifests itself through profound sadness, fear, depression, apprehension, failure to concentrate, failure to participate in usual activities." "

AU makes some criticism of Mugabe, but stops short of serious critique

Cris Chinaka, writing for Reuters, gives a good summary of what the African Union did and didn't achieve in terms of recognizing Mugabe's "sham" election as president of Zimbabwe.

The strongest criticism came from Botswana's Vice-President Mompati Merafhe, who issued a statement requesting that Mugabe be excluded from AU and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) meetings:

"'In our considered view ... the representatives of the current government
in Zimbabwe should be excluded from attending SADC (Southern African Development
Community) and African Union meetings,' Botswana Vice-President Mompati Merafhe
said, according to a text of his remarks."

However, as Chinaka reports, Egypt and South Africa do not agree:

"South Africa, the designated mediator in Zimbabwe, has resisted open
condemnation. The AU summit, in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, called
for SADC mediation, led by South African President Thabo Mbeki, to continue.
"

German Paper firm stops supplying paper for Zim Currency

After pressure from the German government and others, the large German paper firm, Giesecke & Devrient GmbH, which supplies Zimbabwe with the banknotes needed to keep the hyperinflation printing spree going, has announced it will stop supplying paper to the GOZ.
See Reuters Story

Mugabe's Run-in with British Journalist at the AU Summit

The video is Here.