How About GET MUGABE OUT OR NO WORLD CUP IN 2010?

By Clapperton Mavhunga

 

It baffles the mind that instead of sending a commission to find out where Jestina Mukoko and other abducted and missing human rights activists are, SADC is busy going to Botswana to investigate useless claims about non-existent dissidents.

 

Because, if South African President and SADC chair Kgalema Motlante says that the regional body does not believe that Botswana is training MDC dissidents, why is the region wasting time and money investigating what is already known?

 

In fact, is it not shocking that SADC admits to receiving and watching videos of the tortured activists “confessing” to such training when the entire world is shouting hoarse for their release?

 

It borders on the absurd that the body is not taking action on what is already factual: that people have disappeared, are being abducted almost daily for exercising their democratic right, and meanwhile those who have not been disappeared are dying of cholera like flies.

 

South Africans, please be warned that today it is us, you’re next! Your government is complicit in the suffering of Zimbabweans. By your inaction, you are responsible for what is happening in Zimbabwe, because it is your government that is protecting Mugabe.

 

If you say ‘No More!’, Mugabe will be history. How about putting pressure on the ANC, which is facing an election next year, to tell them that you can only vote for them if Mugabe goes first?

 

As Zimbabweans, we are no longer sure where you, South African citizens, really stand. During apartheid, you knew where ordinary Zimbabweans stood: we demonstrated in the street for your freedom. We know where your government stands: with Mugabe.

 

This is no longer a case of begging. Despite FIFA saying “Plan B is Dead”, there CAN be a Plan B.

 

If you feel, as Zimbabweans do, that this is Africa’s World Cup and not just your own, how about using the Cup to demand that you, my brothers and sisters, will not let your country host the World Cup unless your government gets Mugabe out?

 

What is a soccer game at FNB when your brothers and sisters are dying of cholera because of a tyrant your government is protecting—in your name?

 

Just as the dockworkers and unions in your country teamed up to stop the Chinese ship from offloading weapons that would pass through SA to kill Zimbabweans, so too with a “Get Mugabe Out Or No 2010 World Cup” campaign.

 

It is a cause that, with your help can torch every soccer, rugby and cricket stadium in the world, from a Kaiser Chiefs and Sharks game to the English Premier League and baseball in north America. “Get Mugabe Out or Else the World Cup” is a dirty game!

 

We know that industry and your government have pumped in billions of rands, all of which will go to waste if it loses the right to host this cup. There is no bigger issue upon which an entire world is united than soccer, the Fifa World Cup in particular.

 

Realize that the pressure will still mount without your participation. Just like ordinary citizens redeemed America by electing Barack Obama, you, the South African people, can redeem the image of SA on the Zimbabwean issue by forcing your government to change course and kick Mugabe out.

 

If your government is convinced it is doing the right thing on Zimbabwe, how about putting the issue of intervention—by sanctions or force—to a referendum?

 

Or is the notion that “THE PEOPLE SHALL GOVERN” just words?

 

Why not get out into the streets and tell your government and the world that you want your government to “Get Mugabe Out or You Will Not Accept a World Cup Stained in the Blood of Zimbabweans”? Blood that your government now has on its hands?

 

The worsening poverty in your country is being caused overwhelmingly by the increase in immigrant populations which your government has not budgeted for. This extra expenditure is eating into money that could be better used to create your own jobs, alleviate your own poverty, and invest in your own future and that of your own children, and attract non-citizens with needed skills, not refugees which your own government is inviting through its protection of Mugabe.

 

It’s simple economics.

 

Zimbabwe is no longer an issue of “the sovereignty of a next door state”. It is now a domestic problem for South Africa if all a country can export is bugs and problems, if it has no budget whatsoever and all services are gone. When a next door neighbor comes for breakfast, lunch, and supper at your house every day, is he still a neighbor or part of the family? Is his still his own welfare or your own? Think about it.

 

The other time you took your anger upon citizens who are being persecuted by their own government. Now you know that it is your own government which is inviting them by protecting their tyrant.

 

If your government does not act, your own lives will get worse. Zimbabwe has collapsed. Citizens are fleeing to your country to get medical treatment and nonexistent jobs which you yourselves can’t get anyway.

 

It’s not that Zimbabweans are doing nothing. They are fighting to get the AU and UN to act. Even the UN Secretary-General Ban ki Moon and your own elders, including Madiba, have agreed that action must be taken and Mugabe is the problem. But your government is blocking every effort towards UN intervention. Nothing has changed since Mbeki.

 

When are you, fellow brothers and sisters, going to demand that South Africa respects the will of the people of Zimbabwe to fight their own dictator without your government deliberately protecting him?

 

People of South Africa, if you care deeply for the World Cup, tell your government to act on Mugabe. Because if you do not, just like countries boycotted and cut all sporting ties with your country to fight apartheid, that same world is beginning to think that the World Cup should go some place else.

 

Yesterday it was the anti-apartheid movement. Today’s Anti-Apartheid Movement must, surely, be to get rid of Mugabe.

 

Because, fellow brothers and sisters, the argument Nelson Mandela used to plead for South Africa to host the world cup was that it would be “Africa’s World Cup”. It would benefit the entire region and continent.

 

Think about it. People come by night, drag a courageous woman in her pyjamas, while her own son  watches, knowing this may be the last time to see her mother. That is how Jestina Mukoko was abducted.

 

Think about it. People come by night to take your husband or father. It is said that freelance journalists Shadreck Manyere took his infant child in his arms and hugged him for close to a minute, knowing this may be his end.

 

Think about it.

 

How would it feel to fill the stadiums in 2010, satisfied that this was the Cup that brought down Mugabe? Or would you rather that this was the Cup that Mugabe brought down.

 

Unless, of course, Mugabe is right that no African nation is “brave enough” to fight him.

 

 

 

A curious title for an AP wire story today, "Africa Laughs at Mugabe's Coup Fears", as posted on ZWNEWS.com today. It is curious because while leaders may not be taking seriously Mugabe's formal complaint to SADC that Botswana is training a rebel force, it is no laughing matter that Mugabe's police have continued to abduct human rights and MDC activists. Jestina Mukoko, who was abducted on December 10th, is perhaps the best known for her work recording the human rights abuses of Mugabe's regime. Also today, ZWNEWS.com carried the story of the abduction of a well-known Zimbabwe photo-journalists, Shadrack Manyere , all told, there have been 23 abductions reported in the past few weeks. For a more detailed and serious analysis of Mugabe's "cooked up" attempt to make ZANU(PF) appear the victims, see Clapperton Mavhunga's "Mugabe Going for Broke" at the Association of Concerned Africa Scholars (ACAS) blog.

While the leaders of South Africa and Tanzania claim they have already achieved a lot by arranging the power-sharing talks (which the South Africans say will be resolved by the end of the week...), they have no reason to laugh when the police are abducting people and there is no recourse to justice. How can SADC and the AU turn a blind eye to these clear abuses of human rights and expect the MDC to enter a government with the very same people who are arresting and abducting their party members?

In a positive move, South African president, Kgalema Motlanthe, announced that SA will give more humanitarian assistance to Zimbabwe, but not directly to Mugabe's people:

"Motlanthe said a SADC plan to send Zimbabwe humanitarian aid hinged on the
creation of a new, nonpartisan agency being established to distribute food and
medicine. Motlanthe said Zimbabwe had a history of allegations of aid being
hijacked by politicians and not being distributed fairly. "It is important for
the relief to reach all people of Zimbabwe without being influenced by partisan
interests, political interests," Motlanthe said. SADC has proposed an umbrella
aid agency that would include all political parties, international aid agencies,
Zimbabwean farmers and others..."

If they can't trust ZANU(PF) with humanitarian aid, why do they trust them with power-sharing in good faith?

Mugabe Denies Jimmy Carter Visa for Humanitarian Fact Finding Visit

Celia W. Dugger reports for the New York Times from Johannesburg that Jimmy Carter, who is the same age as Mugabe, has been refused a visa to enter Zimbabwe along with Kofi Anan and Graca Machel. Dugger reports that Carter "...had never before been denied a visa."

Dugger writes:

"Mr. Mugabe’s decision to forbid a humanitarian visit by Mr. Carter, former United Nations secretary general Kofi Annan and Nelson Mandela’s wife Graca Machel was a measure of the Zimbabwean leader’s disdain for international opinion at a time when deepening hunger, raging hyperinflation and the collapse of health, sanitation and education services have crippled Zimbabwe.

He refused to let them fly into the country, they said, despite the intervention of both South Africa’s current president, Kgalema Motlanthe, and his recently ousted predecessor, Thabo Mbeki, who is mediating power-sharing talks between Mr. Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai, the opposition leader who bested him in the March general election.

“It seems obvious to me that leaders of the government are immune to reaching out for help for their own people,” Mr. Carter said at a press conference in Johannesburg.

Mr. Carter said Zimbabwe's ambassador in Washington had advised him he would not be issued a visa after he applied for one several weeks ago, but he said the staff of the group sponsoring the trip, The Elders, thought the three of them would be get visas to enter the country on landing at the airport. A very senior official advised them Friday evening that they would not be allowed to enter the country.

Zimbabwe’s information minister, Sikhanyiso Ndlovu, reached Saturday on his cell phone, said that he had been in an all day meeting and was unable to comment. The state-owned newspaper, The Herald, reported on Thursday that the threesome had been told to come later because the government was busy with power-sharing negotiations and the planting season."

Apparently the cell phone farmers in ZANU(PF) are busier planting than negotiating.

In the meantime, the death toll from the cholera outbreak, lack of medical services, and starvation continue to mount.

The big question moving forward is how the international community can continue to offer humanitarian aid while also exerting what little leverage it has on Mugabe. The parallels with the Burma regime and the Mugabe regime are increasingly clear based on this weekend's response to the group of Elders attempts to intervene on the behalf of the people of Zimbabwe.

The World Food Program's Work in Zimbabwe

The World Food Program's efforts in Zimbabwe will require an additional $140 million dollars if the food is to be available through the April 2009, according to the WFP in October, 2008.

The WFP report includes reference to malnourished children:

"In Zimbabwe, 28 percent of children under five are already chronically malnourished.

To boost its already-substantial logistics operation, WFP has opened a new transhipment point in the central town of Gweru and a new warehouse in the South African border town of Musina, which has the capacity to bag 50,000 tons of food over the next six months.

But these plans are all subject to sufficient donations arriving in time. WFP currently faces a shortfall of over 145,000 metric tons of food, including 110,000 tons of cereals. Without extra donations, WFP will run out of supplies in January – just as needs are peaking."

In addition, the WFP report gives details on the donor support as of October 2008:

“Our donors have been extraordinarily generous over the past six years, but the food crisis is far from over. We are urging them to dig deep once again,” said Darboe, adding that cash donations will allow WFP to purchase crucial commodities regionally.

In addition to WFP’s beneficiaries, a group of US-sponsored NGOs known as C-SAFE plans to provide food to over 1 million Zimbabweans in districts not covered by WFP. With these two humanitarian pipelines, food assistance should reach around 5 million people at the peak of the crisis.

While WFP has received almost US$175 million so far in 2008, another US$140 million is urgently needed to fund WFP’s huge emergency operation until April 2009.

Donors to WFP’s operations in Zimbabwe in 2008 include: United States (US$105 million); United Kingdom (US$18 million); Australia (US$14 million); Netherlands (US$11 million); EC (US$10 million); Canada (US$6 million); Japan (US$3 million); Norway (US$2 million); Switzerland (US$1.8 million); Ireland (US$1.5 million); Sweden (US$ 1.2 million); Italy (US$780,000); Spain (US$470,000); and, Greece (US$72,000)."

Given that SADC has recently given Mugabe and ZANU(PF) their "green-light" to do as they please, it would seem helpful if these countries did more in feeding those Zimbabweans who are now in need. It also seems the height of folly for Mugabe to continue to blame the targeted sanctions again himself and his cronies for the failure of the Zimbabwean economy, when the same countries who are imposing these sanctions are spending such large sums of money to feed those in need.

South Africa gets tough with Zimbabwe as Gold Mining Sector is "virtually shut down"

The Financial Times reports today that the South African government is using its promised AID to Zimbabwe as leverage to push Mugabe's ZANU(PF) and the MDC to agree on the terms of the power-sharing agreement.

The article states:

"But the power struggle between Mugabe and MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai, his old foe, has overshadowed daily hardships including food and fuel shortages that have driven millions of Zimbabweans out of the country and strained regional economies.

Zimbabwe’s rival parties will meet with former South African President Thabo Mbeki, who is mediating, next week in South Africa to discuss the deadlock, the South African foreign ministry said.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) group of nations has failed to push Zimbabwe’s parties to settle their differences and get on with the task of rescuing the economy.

Regional power South Africa said it was disappointed to note that ”political interests have taken priority at the expense of the lives of ordinary Zimbabweans”.

”Cabinet decided that the approved R300 ($28.33m) will be retained for agricultural assistance to Zimbabwe,” said a cabinet statement.

”However, this money will be only disbursed once a representative government was in place and in time for the next planting season in April 2009.”

In addition, the article notes the failing of Zimbabwe's gold mining sector:

"The world’s highest inflation rate - above 231m per cent - has made life unbearable for Zimbabweans. And there are new signs of economic deterioration in what used to be one of Africa’s most promising countries.

Zimbabwe’s gold output, which accounts for a third of its export earnings, hit an all-time monthly low of 125 kg in October as economic woes forced more mine closures, a mining official said on Thursday.

The sector has virtually shut down as miners cannot fund operations, senior Zimbabwe chamber of mines official Douglas Verden told Reuters."

Meanwhile, the ZANU(PF)'s Herald newspaper in Harare reports that smuggling is to blame for the destruction of the gold mining industry. Like illegal diamonds, the illegal gold trade is one more indication of how the Zimbabwean economy has been "eaten" by insiders to the point were it has lost any meaningful way to attract the foreign exchange necessary to run the economy.

The Herald reports:

"Producers of the precious metal list their constraints as being largely escalating production costs, frequent power outages, shortages of critical inputs such as cyanide, explosives, spare parts and mining equipment.

However, while gold producers moan over all these factors, many of them are guilty of big-scale smuggling.

The country has for sometime now been losing gold worth hundreds of millions of US dollars every month to smugglers.

Gold is one of the main sources of hard currency for the country, accounting for a third of its export earnings, but now very little of the precious metal is trickling in.

The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe has regularly reviewed the local price of gold, in some cases awarding 10-fold increases, in a bid to curb smuggling and boost sagging deliveries, but this has apparently not paid off.

It means there is something wrong somewhere. Gold producers get 60 percent of their proceeds in foreign currency from what they deliver, but we understand that they have not been paid since March this year.

This is an area that needs urgent attention and against the background of escalating operating costs, it becomes imperative that the gold miners get the payment.

We believe and are confident that the central bank will honour its side of the equation.

However, the RBZ gets irked by the endemic smuggling, elements of indiscipline and side-marketing on the part of the gold producers, especially after they have received the support they need.

All the evidence of gold smuggling and the list of those responsible is there.

What is needed is to bring them to book.

There has been procrastination on arresting and prosecution of the smugglers of gold and other precious metals such as diamonds simply because there is big fish involved."

The Herald is not usually known for its use of understatement. But these are drastic times.

Issues of Retribution and Restorative Justice

The Los Angeles Times continues its excellent reporting from Harare with a story by Robyn Dixon in Harare, "In Zimbabwe, the hunters are now the hunted"

Dixon interviews former "Green Bombers" and other ZANU-PF thugs who had carried out political violence during the months between the March and June elections in 2008.

Dixon suggests that the thugs are now on the run and that in many places the MDC have reclaimed control over their areas and now the Green Bombers, or members of ZANU(PFs) youth militias are worried for their own safety.

Dixon writes:

"Samson Bopoto also spent months hiding in the countryside. Every night, he and other MDC activists expected to be killed.

"Now the tables have turned. It's now ZANU-PF are panicking," said Bopoto, 34, an MDC youth organizer who lives in a Harare township. He and his comrades have taken back the local bar. They sit for hours singing MDC songs, and the former ZANU-PF thugs are nowhere to be seen.

Sometimes the ex-thugs come to his house secretly at night, trying to buy forgiveness or at least protection.

Bopoto says it isn't easy to stop the MDC members from taking revenge. Many are waiting until Cabinet posts are settled and the MDC takes its share of power.

"Still, our wounds are open. . . . Just imagine seeing somebody who's the guy who beat up your mom. They say, 'Sorry guys, I was forced to do that.' But we still have a lot of pain."

The power-sharing deal leaves the way open for prosecutions. Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai says Mugabe should not be held responsible for past crimes, but the question of immunity or prosecution for others hangs unanswered, poisoning the talks."

There are other interesting interpretations in the article, well worth reading in full.

Raises the important issue of restorative justice moving forward. To what extent is there going to be any serious attempt, this time after years of impunity, to force people to accept their personal responsibility for the acts of violence perpetrated on behalf of their political party?

Cholera epidemic in Harare worsens

Peta Thornycroft reports for the Voice of America of the increase in the number of deaths caused by cholera in Zimbabwe's capital. The deaths come at a time when the city's health services and hospitals have all but stopped functiong. Thornycroft writes:

"In Harare Tuesday, doctors from the state's largest hospital in Harare were prevented by riot police from demonstrating against the government's lack provision of medicines, equipment and living wages.

They have also demanded salaries in foreign currency. The Parirenyatwa Hospital where the doctors were demonstrating stopped admitting patients last month because specialist doctors refused to to work under the present conditions. Now the rest of the doctors have formally announced a work stoppage.

Zimbabwe University closed the country's only medical school Monday and sent all third fourth and fifth year students home because of what it describes as the prevailing conditions.

This unrest in the state medical fraternity comes against the background one of the worst cholera epidemic in Zimbabwe. Doctors Without Borders, which is trying to assist says 1.4 million people in Harare are now at risk of catching this preventable disease."

1.4 million people at risk of cholera in Harare. And ZANU(PF), SADC, and South Africa act as if there is no problem.

This is in addition to reports that up to 5 million people in the rural areas will likely need emergency food aid by January, and that the infrastructure is not available to bring in the necessary food to those who need it.

Jimmy Carter, Kofi Anan, and Grace Machel are reportedly planning to visit Zimbabwe this weekend. Let us hope they can get the humanitarian aid rolling in, the regional leaders seem satisfied with doing nothing beyond congratulating themselves for getting Mugabe and the rest of ZANU(PF) out of yet another stolen election.

Zimbabwe Independent Reports on Reasons for Breakdown in Talks

As Monday morning in Harare arrives to word of the sitting of parliament, something that was not supposed to happen under the MOU signed by Mugabe, Tsvangarai and Mutambara, the Zimbabwe Independent reports of leaked document from the talks that clearly shows why Tsvangarai could not accept the position offered him by Mugabe and Mbeki. Walter Marwizi & Vusumuzi Sifile, writing for the Zimbabwe Independent from Harare, report:

"Leaked documents and information gathered from various sources show that the unsuccessful deal, far from ensuring a changing political landscape favouring Tsvangirai who polled the most votes in March 29 elections, would have entrenched Mugabe’s grip on power.

The documents show this 50-50 power arrangement was clearly in favour of Mugabe who would remain Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and head of government as well as head of state.

Tsvangirai refused to sign the agreement nearly two weeks ago in order
to "reflect and consult".

Sources have revealed that top among Tsvangirai’s worries was paragraph
2 of the document titled Role of the Prime Minister.

While the paragraph stipulated that the prime minister would carry the responsibility to oversee the formulation of policies by the Cabinet, it also spelt out that Tsvangirai would not be the man in charge — he would only be "a Member of the Cabinet and its Deputy Chairperson".

This arrangement left Mugabe, in accordance with the Zimbabwe constitution, as the head of Cabinet.

To make matters worse for Tsvangirai, who had insisted that he heads the cabinet, according paragraph 11 he would "report regularly to the president."

Such reports confirm what many thought Mugabe would try, and apparently with the support of Mbeki, to bully Tsvangarai into accepting a position that appeared to be power-sharing, but in reality would have allowed Mugabe to report to the world he is sharing power with the opposition. The same opposition whose leaders and supporters have been on the receiving end of brutal political violence over the past 4 months, and before this.

Allan Little, writing for the BBC a few weeks ago, explained how similar these negotiations appear compared with Mugabe's negotiations in 1988 to bring Joshua Nkomo into a unity government. Like Tsvangarai, Nkomo was the leader of the opposition, ,ZAPU, who had suffered untold horrors and terrible abuses at the hands of Mugabe's 5th Brigade in beginning in 1983--including the killings of thousands of Ndebele civilians and ZAPU organizers--and again in 1985and then the party youth during the 1985 elections.

Little's article, "Nkomo's ghost haunts Zimbabwe talks", comments on the extreme pressures on Tsvangarai not to accept a compromised power sharing as Nkomo had done in 1988. Little writes:

" Ruthless campaign

Mr Mugabe fought him [Nkomo] for five years.
He destroyed him in two ways. First he sent into Matabeleland the ruthless, North Korea-trained Fifth brigade. Thousands of Mr Nkomo's supporters were murdered and their bodies dumped in mass graves in a two-year operation known as Gukurahundi.

Mr Mugabe used what, on the face of it, was sold to the world as a power-sharing agreement to consolidate his own one party state.

Then - and this was a master stroke - Mr Mugabe reached an agreement with Mr Nkomo: a power-sharing agreement.
Mr Nkomo was brought into the
government as vice-president.

Officially, the two political parties merged to form Zanu-PF, but in reality Mr Mugabe's party swallowed Mr Nkomo's Zapu party whole.

Mr Nkomo was neutralised, destroyed.

Mr Mugabe used what, on the face of it, was sold to the world as a power-sharing agreement to consolidate his own one-party state.

It entrenched his dictatorship for 20 years."

So far Morgan Tsvangarai's ability to not cave in to pressures from Mbeki and SADC to accept what appears to have a similarly weak position in Mugabe's government has allowed him and the MDC to avoid Nkomo's fate. But now what?

Monday brings the opening of Parliament and the all-important election of the Speaker of Parliament. With the MDC having 100 seats and ZANU-PF 99, the votes of the lone independent Jason Moyo and the MDC-Mutambara faction with 10 seats, it will be interesting to see how the parties align. It will also be interesting to see if some of the MDC-Tsvangarai faction MPs still in hiding from death threats will even be able to appear in parliament.

SADC Summit Fails to Bring Parties to Agreement, but who feels the pressure?

If South African President Thabo Mbeki had things work his way, he would have been able to conclude this past weekend's SADC summit in South Africa with the announcement of a successful conclusion of the powersharing talks between ZANU-PF, the MDC-T (Tsvangarai), and teh MDC-M (Mutambara). Tsvangarai appears to have survived the intense pressure of the Angolans and Tanzanians (along with South Africa) to sign on to the agreement, and reports suggest that Tsvangarai called Mugabe's bluff with his last suggestion that Mugabe accept the position of Prime Minister with a limited portfolio offered to him. Not surprisingly, Mugabe would not accept such a limit.

Two good post-summit articles are worth considering. The first, by Kenyan reporter Kitsepile Nyathi, based in Harare and writing for Kenya's The Nation newspaper, provides useful insights into the pressures on Mugabe and his ZANU-PF from the Joint Operations Command (JOC), the group of military leaders reported to be responsible for orchestrating the political violence against the MDC during the presidential elections. Nyathi writes:

"His [Mugabe's] image of a man with sole and absolute power was brought into question. South African President Thabo Mbeki spent four days holed in a Harare hotel after Zanu PF and MDC negotiators produced a draft agreement that many believed was a panacea to the impasse that has kept Zimbabwe without a government for five months.

He went back home empty handed after Mr Tsvangirai walked out of the talks protesting that he no longer "understood the language" Mr Mugabe was talking at the negotiating table.

Reports have since emerged that defence forces commander, General Constantine Chiwenga told Mr Mugabe that the army was not prepared to honour any arrangement that leaves Mr Tsvangirai as the dominant figure in government.

Gen Chiwenga is the leader of the Joint Operations Command (JOC), which is made up heads of the army, police, prisons and intelligence that has effectively usurped power from Mr Mugabe since Mr Tsvangirai defeated him in the presidential election held on March 29.

Another Threat

Then another threat came from former liberation war fighters who are said to have ordered the 84 year-old president not to accept any power sharing deal with the opposition, warning that he risked dire consequences including the invasion of commercial farms.

The warnings were separately delivered to Mr Mugabe on Monday, while Zimbabweans expected that the three leaders including Professor Arthur Mutambara of the small faction of the MDC were close to signing the anxiously awaited power-sharing deal.

"The outcome of the talks hinges on the army generals and Mugabe is only there as a figure head," said a researcher at the Department of War and Strategic Studies at the University of Zimbabwe who could not be named for professional reasons.

"The military remains deeply suspicious of Tsvangirai and some commanders feel that they have sacrificed a lot for Mugabe to lose out their positions just like that."

He said Zimbabwe's political transition from the Lancaster House talks that brought the country's independence in 1980 to an accord that ended a civil war in 1987 had always been negotiated by soldiers who must be involved if the current talks were to succeed."

Another helpful article comes from AFP and appears from the sources cited to have been composed in South Africa. The article also points to the JOC as the main force dictating an all or nothing strategy for Mugabe in the talks:

"I think the question to ask from where I'm sitting is whether it is Mugabe's decision," said Aubrey Matshiqi of the Centre for Political Studies in South Africa. An obstacle to a settlement to end the crisis that intensified after Mugabe's widely condemned re-election in June may be the Joint Operations Command, he said. "It would be very difficult for the JOC for instance to give up ministerial posts if this includes giving up the security portfolios." Tsvangirai in June claimed that Zimbabwe was being run by a "military junta", and he boycotted the June run-off vote, citing rising violence against his supporters that had left dozens dead and thousands injured.

The opposition leader has held out so far against accepting a deal that he sees as not granting him real power."

According to analysts cited in the article, there is still a notion that Mugabe and his generals will have to concede some power in order to access Western economic aid:

Despite the differences between the bitter rivals, some analysts say some type of deal will eventually come out of the discussions. Eldred Masungure, a lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe, told AFP that "a deal is inevitable". "There will be an immense pressure on both parties to reach a deal," he said. "Failure is not an option as all other exits are blocked."

But where a deal will leave the opposition is unclear, and some analysts argue Tsvangirai will never accept an agreement that does not give him a workable share of power. "Robert Mugabe might be willing to give some power to Morgan Tsvangirai, but that power will only translate to 25 percent of real power and that would not include him giving Morgan control of the army, police and the intelligence," said Takavira Zhou, a political analyst in Zimbabwe.

In the meantime, Zimbabwe's economic meltdown continues. Once seen as a regional breadbasket, the country now has the world's highest inflation rate, officially put at 2.2 million percent, and major food shortages.

Some argue Mugabe's party may be willing to accept a deal if only to free up international aid. "Zanu-PF seems to have a problem in giving real power to the MDC, but eventually they will have to," said Takura Zhangazha, director of the Media Institute of Southern Africa. World Bank and IMF support will be needed "to get the economy back on track", Zhangazha said."

This seems logical and has been a constant way of interpreting Mugabe's willingness to deal--beyond the need to help Mbeki and SADC placate international demands for some sort of negotiated settlement. It would be naive to count out Mugabe's search for alternatives to dealing with the IMF World Bank. While these attempts have recently faltered, there is still an international competition between mining interests that is likely very involved in the behind the scenes backroom negotiations. This is were the money is made and the power is brokered. In the Rhodesian settlement talks of the 1970s, mining and construction maverick Tiny Rowland was always deeply involved with African nationalists and the international mining community. Today the Tiny Rowlands are from the UK, North America, South Africa, Russia, India, and China's powerful platinum mining interests. As long as the talks can continue--which all sides have reiterated will happen--the mining interests will be hard at work making promises and accepting handshake deals with all parties at the table. Why then, would any party be in a hurry to reach an agreement? Meanwhile, Tsvangarai has the almost impossible task of not betraying the goals of the MDC over the past 8 years. Nyati's report shows just how unpopular are suggestions that Arthur Mutambara has agreed to work with ZANU-PF and form a government with their 10 MPs (ZANU has 99 and MDC-T has 100) based on the March 29th elections. According to Nyati,

"Seven of the faction's 10 MPs [MDC-M] threatened to resign from the party rather than work with Zanu PF."

Where then will the pressure come? Is the international community now so preoccupied with Georgia that it has moved on from its 'horror' over the political violence in Zimbabwe? Has Mbeki been handed over exclusive rights to work this problem out? There is passing reference to pressure on Tsvangarai and Mbeki to reach an agreement. Where is the pressure coming from on South Africa? The US State Department is unlikely to take up the issue with much gusto, after all, most of the key political appointees working on Africa are now working on their CVs and looking for new work starting in January. Once again, time and South Africa's and SADC's inability to stand up on principle and defend Zimbabweans appears to be giving Mugabe and his generals little need to rush. In addition, after the Olympic Flame goes out in Beijing, China will be "more free" to act in Zimbabwe...

To recap events of the past 6 weeks since Mugabe's self-coronation after the uncontested June 27th presidential elections, Mugabe has attended the AU summit in Egypt with only criticisms from Liberia, Zambia, Botswana, and Senegal; had Mbeki defend him at the UN and the EU by insisting that South Africa and SADC could handle the negotiations of a power sharing agreement. This past weekend, after the unrealistic deadline of 2 weeks had already passed, Mugabe, Tsvangarai and Mutambara attended the SADC summit--although Tsvangarai was harassed in Harare at the airport and his departure delayed--and the summit failed to produce an agreement. Significantly, Botswana and Zambia have presented strong criticism in SADC, and the powerful South African trade union COSATU held protests at the summit against Mugabe's illegitimate claim to rule. So, six weeks post-election, where is the pressure on Mugabe and his ruling clique?

Zambian Foreign Minister Stands Up against Mugabe's Regime at SADC Summit

The AFP reports the criticisms of Mugabe and ZANU-PF for their violent crackdown on the opposition leading up to the June 27th presidential run-off election.

The AFP reports:

"Zambia on Saturday slammed Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe's controversial re-election as a "blot on democracy".

"In Zimbabwe, the regrettable events leading to and including the
holding of the run-off elections on 27th June 2008 have no doubt left a serious blot on the culture of democracy in our sub-region," Zambian Foreign Minister
Kabinga Pande said at the opening of a regional summit.

He was addressing the 14-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit on behalf of Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, who remains in
hospital after suffering a stroke in June.

"Not only were these events alien to our region, but they also brought
into question in some quarters the integrity of SADC as an institution capable of promoting the rule of law and democratic governance."
Mwanawasa has previously said it was "scandalous for SADC to remain silent on Zimbabwe".

Mugabe was re-elected in the June run-off poll widely condemned as a
sham. Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai boycotted the run-off despite finishing ahead of Mugabe in the first round of the election in March, citing rising violence against his supporters.

Zambia and Botswana have been among Mugabe's harshest critics in the region. Botswana President Ian Khama stayed away from the summit after his government said it did not recognise Mugabe's re-election."

Talks break again, while talk grows of agreement between Mugabe and Mutambara faction of the MDC

Agnus Shaw reports that the talks have broken off again in Harare, but this time it appears as if Arthur Mutambara, the leader of the smaller MDC faction, has agreed in prinicipal to work with Mugabe's ruling party toward an agreement, which leaves Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC leader who won the most votes in the first elections in March, the sole holdout.

Shaw's report indicates how this new development seems to be putting the pressure on Tsvangirai, while also indicating Mutambara is unwilling to go it alone in agreeing with Mugabe:

"The most contentious issue has been the amount of control 84-year-old Mugabe is prepared to cede. Mugabe reportedly wants to keep his authority as president, while Tsvangirai reportedly wants executive powers as prime minister, including the right to chair Cabinet meetings.

In his statement, Tsvangirai said a solution to Zimbabwe's crisis must reflect the outcome of the March presidential vote, in other words, Tsvangirai's victory over Mugabe.

"We knew negotiations would be difficult, but a resolution that represents anything other than the will of the Zimbabwean people would be a disaster for our country," he said.

Tsvangirai's faction has 100 seats in Parliament, and the ruling ZANU-PF 99. Mutambara, whose faction holds 10, agreed to form a parliamentary alliance with Tsvangirai after the March elections. If the power-sharing talks collapsed and Mutambara switched allegiances, it would give the majority to Mugabe's party.

Mutambara insisted that he had not cut a separate deal with Mugabe to sideline Tsvangirai, saying "there is no way you can extract a bilateral agreement from a tripartite process."

Mutambara appealed to Tsvangirai to think of the national interest.

"We are at a crossroads in our country," Mutambara told a news conference. "The leaders of our political parties must rise up to the challenge to provide leadership.""

Morgan Tsvangirai, who from the beginning of the talks in July has refused to accept a subordinate role to Mugabe, now seem to be putting the burden on South Africa's Mbeki and the SADC leadership to intervene to stop the crisis in Zimbabwe. Again, according to Shaw's report:

""We need a government that transfers power to the elected representatives of the people to carry out the people's mandate for change," said Movement for Democratic Change president Morgan Tsvangirai.

Tsvangirai left South African-mediated talks with Mugabe and the leader of a smaller opposition faction late Tuesday, prompting speculation that he had walked out. But in his statement Wednesday, he said negotiations would continue.

South African President Thabo Mbeki said the adjournment was meant to give Tsvangirai "more time to reflect." He told journalists in Angola — where he made a brief visit after Zimbabwe — that the negotiations were on the right track.

Tsvangirai said that Mugabe must make a sign of good faith and end his ban on international humanitarian aid agencies imposed earlier this year, ostensibly because they were a tool of unfriendly Western governments.

"Our people continue to face a profound humanitarian crisis. This destructive policy of banning humanitarian assistance can be reversed with one letter," Tsvangirai said, demanding that Mbeki pressure Mugabe to agree to this at a summit of regional leaders this weekend."

A SADC summit meeting is scheduled for this coming weekend and it seems that all parties have a different take on how to deal with Zimbabwe at the summit. Mugabe looks bent upon forming a government this week without Tsvangirai (and possibly with Mutambara's small but important number of MPs), while Tsvangirai would likely hope the leaders of Zambia and Botswana--Mugabe's most outspoken critics in SADC--will use the summit to denounce Mugabe's stolen election. The key in all this, once again, is South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki, who, after fending off international efforts at mediation, took on the role as sole mediator on the behalf of SADC.

Meanwhile, international groups such as Human Rights Watch have been doing the important work of showing the extent of violence that has continued since the announcement of talks in July. Their report is available here. Many observers felt the whole process of talks was a tactic to give Mugabe, with the support of SA, more time to find a way to legitimate their illegitimate mandate to lead, and should Mutambara decide to come over to help in that regard, the talks would be a "success" from the standpoint of those who viewed them from the beginning as a way of offering Mugabe a face saving strategy. It would, however, be an extremely unpopular position for Mutambara to accept such as role, and his denial in today's news should be taken seriously. The misinformation that has thus far come out of these secret talks is already at the level readers of the ZANU-PF controlled newspaper, The Herald, are accustomed.

MDC Official Explains Difficulty for Tsvangirai in Talks

Chris McGreal, reporting for the Guardian, cites an MDC official who suggests the difficulties MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai faces in the talks with Robert Mugabe and South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki.

McGreal quotes an unidentified MDC official:

"A spokesman for the opposition said Tsvangirai came under pressure from South
Africa's president, Thabo Mbeki, who is acting as mediator, to allow Mugabe to keep some degree of real power. But the spokesman said the MDC leader argued that would be a betrayal of the voters.

"There is a lot of pressure on
Tsvangirai ... People in the party are telling him that he cannot agree to a deal that does not recognise the people's will and democracy. Mugabe ... should not be allowed to keep power just because he terrorised the population into voting for him.

"The pressure for us is coming from the people. They don't
want to see some kind of half-hearted change. If we were to do that we would lose credibility. If Morgan takes something cosmetic from Zanu-PF he will lose the support of the Zimbabwean people.""

Peta Thornycroft Reports of Stall in Talks while economic crisis worsens

Peta Thornycroft, reporting from Harare for Voice of America, indicates that the Hero's Day speech by Mugabe hints that the talks are not going to come to a quick resolution over the issue of power sharing between Mugabe's ZANU-PF and the MDC. Mugabe's speech indicated that violence was not out of the question for dealing with the MDC. Thornycroft writes:

"During his Hero's Day address, Mr. Mugabe spoke about violence that wracked Zimbabwe between the March 29 elections and the presidential run off on June 27. He said if people try to take away Zimbabwe's sovereignty, then people can only react.

He said that God gives people the power to protect themselves, even if that means violence.

Many analysts believe that Mr. Mugabe was referring to the Movement for Democratic Change. He has long accused the party of being a stooge of the West."

Thornycroft also writes of the sense of urgency about the talks, as the lack of foreign exchange to buy imported food may be the main force driving Mugabe to negotiate after using violence to claim an illegitimate victory in the June 27th run-off election for president. An election in which his opponent, Morgan Tsvangirai of the MDC pull-out of the race after more than 120 MDC activists and supporters had been killed by pro-ZANU-PF paramilitary groups.

Thornycroft explains the dire economic situation:

"...sources say both parties understand that without a deal the present economic chaos in Zimbabwe would quickly deteriorate to social catastrophe as there is very little food and no foreign currency to import it.

Zimbabwe needs western aid to stabilize its currency and reduce inflation of more than two million percent, and to rebuild its shattered industrial and agricultural infrastructure."

While talks stall, violence against MDC continues in Zimbabwe

An AFP wire story reported on NASDAQ today reports of continued violence against MDC officials and supporters.

The report gives account of violence in Eastern Zimbabwe:

"Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights said an urgent high court application had been filed by a lawmaker and five local councillors from the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, or MDC, related to the alleged attacks.

The five local councillors had been forced from their homes and have sought refuge outside of the Nyanga constituency, the rights group said, citing the court case.

The lawmaker is Douglas Mwonzora and the councillors are Edith Baipai, Thenia Nyanhongo, Fidelis Katerere, Munyaradzi Mwonzora and Passmore Mandikuvadza.

Their court filing requests the alleged harassment and assault of opposition members and supporters, as well as the theft of their livestock, be stopped immediately. They are also seeking the dismantling of what they called illegal roadblocks and semi-military bases.

The rights group expressed "serious concern over the continued politically motivated violence and violation of the fundamental rights of perceived and confirmed members of the MDC by war veterans."

The so-called war veterans are hardline supporters of Mugabe, who won a new term as president in June in a one-man election widely condemned as a sham.

The rights group also criticized police "inaction" in reported cases of violence and intimidation."

The SABC (South AFrica) reports on a new report by the Solidarity Peace Trust that details many acts of torture and violence carried out by government supporters against those supporting the opposition:

"The dossier is the first comprehensive account of what's believed to be government-sponsored violence in that country during and after the March 29, 2008 elections. Activist Sharri Eppel says youth militia and war veterans are believed to be behind the attacks. “We've seen meticulous kinds of torture. People having their genitals ripped off with barbed wire, people having needles, threaded repeatedly through their hands.”

Eppel further stated that in other instances people would have their hands and feet smashed repeatedly. People have been abducted, killed and then their bodies have turned up, sometimes weeks later."

The Reports of the Solidarity Peace Trust are available at their website.

Talks Stall, hints of what each side wants

The AFP reports today that the stalled talks have a long way to go to reach a compromise. With Mbeki in Harare to encourage Mugabe to make public statements about his "total committment" to talks, and Morgan Tsvangirai in Senegal to talk to Senegalese President Wade, it isn't difficult to see the main stumbling block. Tsvangirai wants a more serious position for himself in a transitional government, while ZANU-PF wants to create a government of national unity with Tsvangirai as "third vice president".

The article quotes political scientist John Makumbe's views:

" John Makumbe, a political science lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe,
argued that the media coverage was probably accurate.

'Things are not going well. President Mbeki can pretend that everything
is under control. But the body language, even of Mugabe makes it very clear that
there is a deadlock,'he said Thursday in an interview on South Africa's public
broadcaster SA FM.
'I had expected all along that there will be serious
problem on agreeing on a vehicle for transition to democracy; either to adopt a
government of national unity, as canvassed by the ZANU-PF or create a
transitional government, as suggested by the MDC.'"

Insights into the Secret talks and why individuals defeated in the 2008 election find themselves at the table

Journalist and Zimbabwe Times editor Geoffrey Nyarota writes on July 26th for the Zimbabwe Times a very useful observation about the cuurent talks between the ZANU-PF, Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC, and Arthur Mutambara's MDC. Nyarota points out that not all the people negotiating, including ZANU-PF's Patrick Chinamasa, have the mandate of the people to partake. Chinamasa lost his parliamentary seat in the March 29th election but as a key Mugabe insider, still serves as the Minister of Justice.

Nyarota writes:

"From a different prospective the politicians participating in the current talks received the mandate of the people in recent elections. That, of course, is with the notable exception of the delegates representing the breakaway faction of the MDC led by Professor Arthur Mutambara. Professor Welshman Ncube and Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga, as well as Justice Minister, Patrick Chinamasa, representing Zanu-PF, who were totally rejected by voters in their constituencies on March 29.

By some coincidence, only 50 percent of the delegates enjoy the mandate of the people to represent them. These are Tendai Biti and Lovemore Mangoma of the mainstream MDC led by Tsvangirai, as well as Nicholas Goche of Zanu-PF. The other 50 percent are not mandated representatives of the people.

Neither are Madhuku and Chibhebhe.

As if not to be outdone, Ncube and Misihairabwi’s leader, Mutambara, quickly crafted and volunteered what became the first, if unofficial, and so far only concept paper for the Pretoria talks. Clearly overwhelmed by the euphoria generated by the surprise appendage of his own signature to the MoU, Mutambara proposed that Mugabe and Tsvangirai should travel hand in hand to every corner of Zimbabwe and address joint rallies to demonstrate their commitment to a peaceful and prosperous future Zimbabwe.

One difference between Lancaster and Pretoria is dramatic. Muzorewa, Chief Chirau and Sithole returned from the Lancaster House Conference to endure humiliating defeat in the 1980 elections. Twenty-eight years later, Chinamasa, Ncube and Misihairambwi endured equally humiliating defeat in the 2008 parliamentary elections and then skillfully maneuvered their way to sitting around the negotiating table in Pretoria."

Read Nyarota's entire editorial here.

Violence Against MDC continues as Talks Underway

Peta Thornycroft reports today from Harare for the Voice of America that although the MOU for the talks specifically indicated there would be a cessation to the violence during the talks, this has not been the case.

Thornycroft writes:

"Meanwhile, the political violence that has plagued Zimbabwe continues. The violence began after President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF was beaten by Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC in March 29 elections.

Violence escalated until Mr. Tsvangirai withdrew from a June 27 presidential run-off in which Mr. Mugabe later claimed victory. International observers say the run-off was neither free nor fair.

Human rights monitors say the violence has diminished somewhat, but since the parties agreed to talks a week ago three people, all known MDC supporters, have been killed.

In other incidents, a Zimbabwean freelance journalist was savagely beaten in his Harare home. He was later allegedly accused by police of bringing Zimbabwe's name into disrepute.

And, political scientist John Makumbe was questioned by police last week. He was accused of fabricating cases of political violence, according to the state press.

In at least three Zimbabwe districts there is still political tension and many people who fled their homes say they are still too frightened to return home.

In Buhera, in the Manicaland Province, human rights monitors say there are 25 paramilitary bases controlled by ZANU-PF youth that are still operational. In other districts, bases continue to be dismantled, but in many cases ZANU-PF personnel who worked there are still in the districts. Many people say they are fearful of them.

There are curfews in place in the northern parts of Mashonaland East province, in parts of Manicaland and Mashonaland Central, according to human rights monitors who have traveled around those districts in the past 10 days. "

The MOU stated under section 10.1. "Security of persons"

(a) Each Party will issue a statement condemning the promotion and use of violence and call for peace in the country and shall take all measures necessary to ensure that the structures and institutions it controls are not engaged in the perpetration of violence.

(b) The Parties are committed to ensuring that the law is applied fairly and justly to all persons irrespective of political affiliation.

(c) The Parties will take all necessary measures to eliminate all forms of political violence, including by non-state actors, and ensure the security of persons and property.

(d) The Parties agree that, in the interim, they will work to ensure the safety of any displaced persons and their safe return home and that humanitarian and social welfare organizations are enabled to render such assistance as might be required.

10.2. Hate speech

The Parties shall refrain from using abusive language that may incite hostility political intolerance and ethnic hatred or undermine each other."


The full text of the MOU is available at Relief Web.

Third Vice President for Tsvangirai?

The AFP reports today that the talks between ZANU-PF and the MDC have run into trouble one week after beginning. The reporter, talking with unnamed MDC sources, suggests that Morgan Tsvangirai has flown to Pretoria in order to talk with his negotiating team. One source suggested that the talks are at a stalemate because ZANU-PF has failed to offer Tsvangirai anything more than the position of "third Vice President". The level of rumor and speculation runs high, as any talks in Zimbabwe, especially 'secret' talks are prone to increase the already high level of misinformation.

Guardian [UK] Reports imminent shortage of bank notes in Zimbabwe

Chris McGreal continues excellent coverage from Harare, reporting today of fears over the shortage of paper to print Zimbabwe's hyperinflated currency.

The problem for ZANU-PF is that since the German banknote company stopped supply paper during the violent presidental run-off campaign, they have not been able to find alternative sources locally.

McGreal reports:

"Zimbabwe was looking to Malaysia as an alternative source of paper but the government feared that the licence for the specialist software supplied by another European firm would be withdrawn as part of the boycott of Robert Mugabe's regime.

The software is supplied by Jura JSP, a Hungarian-Austrian company that specialises in security printing. A knowledgeable source inside Fidelity Printers said the software issue had created an air of panic.

"It's a major problem. They are very concerned that the licence will be withdrawn or not renewed. They are trying to find ways around it, looking at the software, but it's very technical. They are in a panic because without the software they can't print anything," he said.

On Monday, the central bank issued a $100bn note, the highest denomination to date but worth only about 7p, printed on what remains of stocks of the German-supplied paper.
The source said the firm had been told that new supplies of currency paper were coming from Malaysia but it was unable to meet the current demand for cash created by hyperinflation that economists estimated was running at about 40m%."

McGreal reports the real issue will be how will the ZANU-PF controlled government continue to pay soldiers?

The LA Times ran a very good insider story (without a byline) last week on the impending shortage of banknote paper, and the crazy world of Fidelity Presses, where 1,000 workers worked 24/7 seven days a week to keep printing more money.

The author of the LA Times story illustrates the meaning of hyper-inflation for those who can afford to drink beer in one of Harare's downtown establishments:

"Before the crunch, a beer at a bar in Harare, the capital, cost 15 billion Zimbabwean dollars. At 5 p.m. July 4, it cost 100 billion ($4 at the time) in the same bar.An hour later, the price had gone up to 150 billion ($6)."

VOA Interviews MDC leaders and others about the Talks between ZANU-PF and MDC

Blessing Zulu reports for Voice of America of the SADC and AU sanctioned talks that were scheduled to begin today in South Africa.

Zulu reports that Mugabe and MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai reportedly had a 90-minute talk after the formal signing of the MOU in Harare on Monday.

Zulu provides the following context for the talks:

"Power-sharing talks between Zimbabwe's ruling party and opposition were expected to begin in earnest on Wednesday following the signing early this week of a memorandum of understanding setting out the daunting task ahead of the crisis negotiators.

Some observers expressed skepticism that the ruling ZANU-PF and opposition Movement for Democratic Change negotiating teams could address all of the issues on the table within the two weeks that have been allocated for coming up with a power-sharing agreement.

The agreement would provide for a government of national unity or a transitional authority to run the country or revise the constitution and prepare the ground for new elections."

Zulu also reports that Tsvangirai has said he will not agree to anything without the support of Zimbabwean civil society and trade union. This is an interesting development, as Welshman Ncube, who supports Arthur Mutambara's wing of the MDC, had said earlier in the week that civil society would like to see someone other than Tsvangirai or Mugabe as the leader of any government of national unity.

There are interviews with Welshman Ncube, Nelson Chamisa of the Tsvangirai MDC, ZANU-PF's Chris Mutsvangwa, and lawyer Theresa Mugadza

BBC Coverage of Response in Harare to MOU between ZANU-PF and MDC

Brian Hungwe, writing for the BBC Africa, presents views on the street as news of yesterday's Memorandum of Understanding was signed by Mugabe, Tsvangirai, and Mutambara.

Here is Hungwe's description of the signing ceremony:

"There was a handshake and a smile, but no embrace. It appears the rivals did not want to physically commit themselves that far.

The body language failed to provide a clue as to whether the ice had really been broken in the hotel where they held a brief meeting.

Mr Mutambara seemed at ease, Mr Tsvangirai disinterested, and Mr Mugabe was, as usual, self-confident.

The handshake was a temporary triumph for South African President Thabo Mbeki and his much-criticised "quiet diplomacy" policy on Zimbabwe.

At last, the rivals had come face to face.

They signed a commitment to "end polarisation, divisions, conflict and intolerance that have characterised our country's politics."

The talks are due to be completed in two weeks."

Hungwe described the difference responses of people in Harare:

"In the townships, there is some confusion.

"We wait and see, it's difficult to trust Mr Mugabe," says Caleb, 34, from Chitungwiza, a dormitory town just south of Harare.

But Mudiwa, of Highfields said: "We trust all our leaders, we hope whatever they will debate, is good for us all."

"This is not the time to outdo one another, but to think about the suffering of the ordinary people."

Around the streets of Harare, the news came as a shock to many.

It drew laughter from those who thought it was a hoax, but excitement from others.

A security officer at a local hotel said people were looking forward to making sure "people are having enough food and they are having enough medication from the hospitals".

Taxi driver Johannes Phiri said: "I am quite happy, what's has been happening was very bad."

"With the agreement, everything will be all right so that we can survive and lead our normal lives again.""

Perhaps the most telling response was from a rural Zimbabwean who lost three brothers in the political violence during the campaigning for the last election:

"Leslie Madamombe of Mashonaland Central province lost three brothers a week before the country's 27 June presidential run-off.

One was shot point-blank and the others forced to drink a lethal Chinese paraquat herbicide by militias from the ruling Zanu-PF party.

"[The agreement] should have happened long back," he says. "Nothing will ever bring my three dead brothers back."

Leslie's mother and elder brother Hilton still fear for their lives, guarded by armed police at a Harare hospital.

"I'm bitter, but I however look forward with hope," he says."

Africa Confidential Reports details of ZANU-PF Money trail

As mentioned in the previous posting on the ZSG blog, the ability of insiders in ZANU-PF to pilfer foreign exchange earnings from the most lucrative mining interests in Zimbabwe has lead to the re-investment of these funds in lucrative opportunities elsewhere. Africa Confidential reports on July 18th of some of the strategies being used in relation to mining, in this case asbestos mining. Africa Confidential reports:

"Earlier this month, a judge granted AMG Global Nominees an appeal hearing for 3 November in its long-running fight to take control of the London-listed Africa Resources
Limited (ARL) and its asbestos mines, owned by Zimbabwean businessman Mutumwa Mawere (AC Vol 49 No 12).An article on 27 June in Zimbabwe's daily state mouthpiece The Herald let slip that AMG Global Nominees 'represents Government [sic] interests'. AMG Administrator Afaras Gwaradzimba, appointed by Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa, said in
an interview that AMG had received 'US$2 million from the Reserve Bank' in a bid to force Mawere to divest control in ARL. Charles Hewetson, a partner at Reed Smith, told AC that Gwaradzimba was independently appointed and the government's relationship with AMG was as a creditor to the asbestos mines. "

The entire article gives much greater detail.

How ZANU-PF puts pressure on Western Firms in order to Silence Criticisms

The AFP reports today in an article without a byline "Zimbabwe eyes foreign firms for takeover", that the Mugabe regime has announced it is continuing to review companies with foreign interests as possible candidates for state takeover. The article explains:

"'We will identify the potential partners and the companies that could be taken over,' Paul Mangwana, the minister in charge of "economic empowerment," told AFP, citing a recent economic reform.

He said British investors held stakes in at least 499 Zimbabwean companies while 353 firms have shareholders from other European countries. A recent act came into force aimed at "indigenisation" -- boosting local ownership of companies.

State media reported meanwhile that companies heeding a call by world powers for United Nations sanctions against President Robert Mugabe's government would be seized.

The Sunday News reported that the government was auditing companies owned or partly held by Western shareholders, with a view to inviting other foreign investors from "friendly" countries to take a share in them. "

Still citing the Sunday News article, the AFP explains how China and other "Far East" companies stand to benefit from the review:

""In the context of growing Western hostility, the government is planning to invite companies from friendly countries to move in and take over those companies that will close down," the newspaper quoted a government source as saying.

"Gone are the days of political or generalised invitations to foreigners. We need to move a gear up and approach friendly countries with sector-specific or even enterprise-specific proposals," said the source.

Investors from countries considered friendly, particularly from the Far East, would be lined up in a bid to boost the economic stabilisation process in the country, the report said.

The indigenisation law aims to give native Zimbabweans at least 51 percent ownership of the shares of public companies and other businesses, the Sunday Mail state newspaper reported in March."

Of course, the really serious concern for western companies will be over platinum mining rights. Zimbabwe has already made gestures to allow Chinese firms access, but the real test will be whether the current regime is willing to give up the large current payouts from South African and British firms in return for promised future payments from the Chinese. With so little foreign exchange earning coming to Zimbabwe outside of mining, it is doubtful that the ZANU-PF government will risk threatening the South Africans and the British mining concerns simply to make a point. But the balancing act of Chinese and Western interests will continue to be manipulated by the ruling elite, even as the rhetoric of the "Look East Policy" and cozy relationships with Barclays Bank, Standard Charter Bank, Anglo Platinum, Impala Platinum, Aquarius Platinum South Africa, and Comec continue to offer financial "opportunities" for ZANU-PF's inner circle.

African response to Zimbabwe's sham elections and political violence shows new spirit of criticism

MICHELLE FAUL of the Associated Press wrote a week ago about the divided response from African politicians this time around following the sham June 27th run-off election.

"A younger generation of African leaders appears willing to break from the clubbiness that has characterized the governing elites on this continent where authoritarian rule has long been the norm.

Among the most outspoken has been Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, the Liberian president who is the continent's only female leader.

On a visit to South Africa this week, she was the first African leader to support proposed U.N. sanctions against Zimbabwe's leaders, saying they send a "strong message" that the world will not tolerate violence to retain power.

"It's important, because it's the first time that we are seeing on the African continent that leadership has transitioned from the old perceptions," said Chris Maroleng, a South African political analyst.

"We're seeing more leaders beginning to embrace their own democratic notion," he added."

In addition to the above mentioned criticisms from Liberia, Faul lists the other outspoken leaders who have chosen to speak out against the abuses of power by ZANU-PF:

"

They include Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, a lawyer who is his country's third leader since independence in 1964; former army commander Seretse Ian Khama of Botswana, Africa's most enduring democracy; and Nigeria's Umar Yar'Adua, only the third civilian leader since 1966, though he still is fighting a court battle over his fraud-riddled election.

Mugabe's June 27 runoff "was neither free nor fair and therefore the legitimacy of his presidency is in question. He cannot wish that away," Kenya's Foreign Minister Moses Wetangula told The Associated Press."

Mugabe's strongest support have come from his allies in the Congo Wars, Kabila's DRC, Angola, and Namibia.

Faul explains how the lack of criticism from the African Union after the election showed the weakness of the AU to live up to its declared principles state at its 2002 reconstitution, replacing the discredited Organization of African Union:

"The African leaders also retained South African President Thabo Mbeki as mediator for Zimbabwe, ignoring the Zimbabwe opposition's rejection of him and widespread condemnation that his 8-year-long "softly, softly" approach to Mugabe has hastened Zimbabwe's collapse.

Liberia's Sirleaf said the African Union could only maintain its credibility if it pronounced the June 27 runoff unacceptable.

The prevailing African silence over Mugabe marks a landmark failure for the union, set up in 2002 to replace the discredited Organization of African Unity, which had become little more than a dictators' club. The new union was to be the flagship for an African renaissance based on democracy and Africans solving African problems.

At its inaugural summit in 2002, leaders committed themselves to holding fair elections at regular intervals, to allow opposition parties to campaign freely and to set up independent electoral commissions to monitor polls.

Mugabe failed on every point.

While the old organization pledged noninterference in member states, the new union includes a Peace and Security Council, structured on the U.N. Security Council, that has the right to intervene when human rights are grossly violated or crimes against humanity perpetrated.

The only African intervention has been to send troops to back Comoros government soldiers in ousting a coup leader from the remote Indian Ocean island of Anjouan in March — an easy target."

This week, AU Commission Chairman Jean Ping arrived in South Africa to help guarantee negotiations would start, and it appears today, according to the Associated Press, that an agreement has been reached for talks to begin.