Mbeki now in the hot seat

The decision made yesterday (June 22, 2008) by MDC presidential candidate Morgan Tsvangarai to END participation of the MDC in the current run-off election against unofficial president Robert Mugabe has turned attention to South African President Thabo Mbeki. Mbeki, who had told the world after the March 29th election that there was "no crisis" in Zimbabwe, now needs to find a new line given the extensive world press coverage of the brutal attacks against MDC candidates, their families, and their supporters over the past 2 months. Sean Jacobs has written an analysis for the Guardian [UK] that paints an interesting picture of Mbeki and why he has remained so steadfastly in support of Mugabe over the past 8 years.

As world leaders condemn Mugabe's rule and question his legitimacy as president of Zimbabwe, there are two nations absent from the condemnation, South Africa and China. Over the next few weeks, we should watch to see what, if anything, these two nations say about Zimbabwe. Perhaps their silence reflects historical ties to the Mugabe regime? Or perhaps they are related to the current competition between the two nations over platinum mining rights in Zimbabwe. South Africa currently dominates platinum mining in Zimbabwe, but during the past few weeks, against the backdrop of electoral violence, the Chinese have negotiated new access to platinum mining in Zimbabwe.

Some British companies have already come under fire for continuing to invest in platinum mining in Zimbabwe, but there seems to be no criticism of the South African or Chinese mining companies there. As the international community ramps up pressure on Mugabe's regime, will the mining sector come under greater scrutiny?

The news of the MDC pulling out of the run off campaign had a negative impact on the value of the South African Rand today (June 23, 2008), suggesting that the violence in Zimbabwe will take on an increasingly important place in South African politics than it has been to date.