Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Talks break again, while talk grows of agreement between Mugabe and Mutambara faction of the MDC

Agnus Shaw reports that the talks have broken off again in Harare, but this time it appears as if Arthur Mutambara, the leader of the smaller MDC faction, has agreed in prinicipal to work with Mugabe's ruling party toward an agreement, which leaves Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC leader who won the most votes in the first elections in March, the sole holdout.

Shaw's report indicates how this new development seems to be putting the pressure on Tsvangirai, while also indicating Mutambara is unwilling to go it alone in agreeing with Mugabe:

"The most contentious issue has been the amount of control 84-year-old Mugabe is prepared to cede. Mugabe reportedly wants to keep his authority as president, while Tsvangirai reportedly wants executive powers as prime minister, including the right to chair Cabinet meetings.

In his statement, Tsvangirai said a solution to Zimbabwe's crisis must reflect the outcome of the March presidential vote, in other words, Tsvangirai's victory over Mugabe.

"We knew negotiations would be difficult, but a resolution that represents anything other than the will of the Zimbabwean people would be a disaster for our country," he said.

Tsvangirai's faction has 100 seats in Parliament, and the ruling ZANU-PF 99. Mutambara, whose faction holds 10, agreed to form a parliamentary alliance with Tsvangirai after the March elections. If the power-sharing talks collapsed and Mutambara switched allegiances, it would give the majority to Mugabe's party.

Mutambara insisted that he had not cut a separate deal with Mugabe to sideline Tsvangirai, saying "there is no way you can extract a bilateral agreement from a tripartite process."

Mutambara appealed to Tsvangirai to think of the national interest.

"We are at a crossroads in our country," Mutambara told a news conference. "The leaders of our political parties must rise up to the challenge to provide leadership.""


Morgan Tsvangirai, who from the beginning of the talks in July has refused to accept a subordinate role to Mugabe, now seem to be putting the burden on South Africa's Mbeki and the SADC leadership to intervene to stop the crisis in Zimbabwe. Again, according to Shaw's report:

""We need a government that transfers power to the elected representatives of the people to carry out the people's mandate for change," said Movement for Democratic Change president Morgan Tsvangirai.

Tsvangirai left South African-mediated talks with Mugabe and the leader of a smaller opposition faction late Tuesday, prompting speculation that he had walked out. But in his statement Wednesday, he said negotiations would continue.

South African President Thabo Mbeki said the adjournment was meant to give Tsvangirai "more time to reflect." He told journalists in Angola — where he made a brief visit after Zimbabwe — that the negotiations were on the right track.

Tsvangirai said that Mugabe must make a sign of good faith and end his ban on international humanitarian aid agencies imposed earlier this year, ostensibly because they were a tool of unfriendly Western governments.

"Our people continue to face a profound humanitarian crisis. This destructive policy of banning humanitarian assistance can be reversed with one letter," Tsvangirai said, demanding that Mbeki pressure Mugabe to agree to this at a summit of regional leaders this weekend."



A SADC summit meeting is scheduled for this coming weekend and it seems that all parties have a different take on how to deal with Zimbabwe at the summit. Mugabe looks bent upon forming a government this week without Tsvangirai (and possibly with Mutambara's small but important number of MPs), while Tsvangirai would likely hope the leaders of Zambia and Botswana--Mugabe's most outspoken critics in SADC--will use the summit to denounce Mugabe's stolen election. The key in all this, once again, is South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki, who, after fending off international efforts at mediation, took on the role as sole mediator on the behalf of SADC.

Meanwhile, international groups such as Human Rights Watch have been doing the important work of showing the extent of violence that has continued since the announcement of talks in July. Their report is available here. Many observers felt the whole process of talks was a tactic to give Mugabe, with the support of SA, more time to find a way to legitimate their illegitimate mandate to lead, and should Mutambara decide to come over to help in that regard, the talks would be a "success" from the standpoint of those who viewed them from the beginning as a way of offering Mugabe a face saving strategy. It would, however, be an extremely unpopular position for Mutambara to accept such as role, and his denial in today's news should be taken seriously. The misinformation that has thus far come out of these secret talks is already at the level readers of the ZANU-PF controlled newspaper, The Herald, are accustomed.